World Food Policy WFP Volume 4, No. 2, Spring 2018 | Page 15

Global and Regional Perspectives of Food Economy and Policy
2.2. Population Growth and
Urbanization
the total world population in 2016, and
projected to increase to 60% by 2050
(Figure 2.4). Rapid income growth and
urbanization influence the diets and
patterns of agricultural production in
developing countries specially in Asia
but also increasingly observed in Afri-
ca. Change in diets to convenience food
or fast food, increased consumption of
fruits and vegetables, higher food en-
ergy (more sugar, fats and oil), and fast
growth in meat consumption and de-
mand for grains for feed are some ex-
amples. On the other hand, more than
half of grain demand in the future will
be for livestock feed (and not for peo-
ple), which puts intense pressure on
land and water.
At the global level, population growth
has slowed. However very strong
growth is still apparent in many coun-
tries and regions, particularly in Af-
rica South of the Sahara (green line)
with explosive population growth up
to 2050—and South Asia (orange) still
growing at a very fast rate of about 1.75
billion in 2015 to 2.4 billion by 2045
(Figure 2.4, left hand side). Therefore,
population growth remains to be the
driving demand for food in addition to
income growth.
Additionally, the world is under-
going rapid urbanization with the ur-
ban population reaching about 50% of
Figure 2.4. Population growth and urbanization in developing countries
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division
(2014). World Urbanization Prospects: The 2014 Revision, CD-ROM Edition.
the future. A water stress risk index is
presented in Figure 2.5 shows the total
population and GDP generated in water
scarce regions today and projected to
2.3. Water Stress
Growing water scarcity will pose sig-
nificant problems for food security in
11