RESIDENTIAL LAND SALES & DETACHED HOUSE STARTS - AUSTRALIA
120,000
100,000
95,000
115,000
90,000
85,000
110,000
80,000
105,000
75,000
70,000
100,000
65,000
95,000
60,000
55,000
50,000
90,000
Two qtr lag; HIA starts f/c for Sep 13 & Dec 13 qtrs
Moving annual totals
85,000
45,000
Source: rpdata.com, HIA Economics
Jun-2002
Sep-2002
Dec-2002
Mar-2003
Jun-2003
Sep-2003
Dec-2003
Mar-2004
Jun-2004
Sep-2004
Dec-2004
Mar-2005
Jun-2005
Sep-2005
Dec-2005
Mar-2006
Jun-2006
Sep-2006
Dec-2006
Mar-2007
Jun-2007
Sep-2007
Dec-2007
Mar-2008
Jun-2008
Sep-2008
Dec-2008
Mar-2009
Jun-2009
Sep-2009
Dec-2009
Mar-2010
Jun-2010
Sep-2010
Dec-2010
Mar-2011
Jun-2011
Sep-2011
Dec-2011
Mar-2012
Jun-2012
Sep-2012
Dec-2012
Mar-2013
Jun-2013
Sep-2013
Dec-2013
40,000
Land Sales (lhs)
low base. The level of sales in 2012/13 was 56,782. Sales are
therefore now back to a level equivalent to the GFC trough
but no higher - the level is still 19 per cent below the long term
average. Obviously, it will be important to see further strong
momentum in land sales for some time to come. For that to
occur, there needs to be a keener policy focus on ensuring
adequate shovel-ready land is available.
In terms of recent land sales history, from a record low reached
in the December 2010 quarter, land sales volumes have been
gathering upward momentum. The recovery has primarily been
driven by the capital cities – in the latest six month period the
volume of land sales in Australia’s six state capitals increased
by 31.5 per cent to be 26.0 per cent higher when compared to
the six months to June 2012. Regional land sales (covering thirty
nine markets) are recovering with a lag and it is a good sign to
see some growing momentum. Over the first six months of 2013
the aggregate growth for regional Australia was 17.4 per cent,
taking sales to a level a modest 5.0 per cent higher than the
comparable period in 2012.
For the capital cities, the stand-out performance in the June
2013 quarter came from Sydney where land sales volumes rose
by a substantial 59 per cent (to be up by 33 per cent in annual
terms to an eleven year high). Elsewhere, land sales volumes
posted a quarterly increase in Melbourne (+44 per cent),
Brisbane (+33 per cent) and Adelaide (+45 per cent). Quarterly
declines were recorded in Perth (-18 per cent) and Hobart (-5
per cent). Sales increased compared to the June 2012 quarter
in all six state capitals. Growth was fastest in Adelaide (+42
per cent), followed by Sydney (+33 per cent), Brisbane (+32
per cent), Perth (+21 per cent), Melbourne (+13 per cent) and
80,000
Detached Starts - sum of states (rhs)
Hobart (+ 6 per cent).
Outside of the capital cities, the five strongest improvements
occurred in South Australia and New South Wales, while the
five weakest markets for land sale volumes were found in
Queensland and Victoria.
The trajectory for residential land sales implies that detached
house starts will register growth in all six capital cities in the
second half of 2013. The most subdued outlook is, not
surprisingly, for Hobart, while the slowest growth in land sales
(from a relatively elevated starting point) is for Perth. The
strongest outlook is for Sydney, followed by Melbourne,
Adelaide and then Brisbane.
In the six months to June 2013, there were twenty nine of thirty
nine regional land markets that recorded growth compared
to the six months to June 2012.
As I noted above, what the profile for land sales also tells us is
that the base for recovery is very low. Considering RP DataHIA land sales and ABS detached house starts in terms of a
moving annual total, the current recovery is occurring from
a base significantly lower than that plumbed during the GFC
(especially with regard to land sales). In 2013, this base is still a
significant factor in what are at face value fast looking rates of
growth for residential land sales.
We can draw considerable encouragement from clear signs
of recovery ahead for detached house starts. At the same
time, the base from which the recovery is occurring serves as
a reminder that there is a long road ahead to return to
healthy construction levels.
Summer 2013 www.awa.org.au 29