economy
| harley dale
Land sales point
to further growth
in detached house building
•
hia economics group
•
In the 2012/13 financial year, new detached house starts increased by 3.7
per cent to a level of 92,853. Total housing starts grew by a faster 10.8 per
cent last year reflecting the key driver of the recovery being attached
dwellings - primarily high rise apartments and semi-detached/townhouse
product - which grew by 22.3 per cent.
T
he increase in detached house
starts in 2012/13 followed declines
of 13 per cent in 2010/11 and 11
per cent in 2011/12. The 2012/13 level
of 92,853 represented 90 per cent of
the long term (dating back to 1977)
average level of 103,611.
Harley Dale
HIA Chief
Economist
I noted at the recent Fenestration
Australia conference, held in my own
fabulous ‘abode’ of Canberra, the
share of detached housing in total
new home building was in decline. In
the early 2000s, the share of detached
houses in total new home building was
over 70 per cent. In the early 2000s, this
share was around 68 per cent. In 2012,
the share was 60 per cent.
Granted, the latest figure is influenced
by an apartment boom in Melbourne which is now on the wane, but we are
still facing a detached house share
closer to 60 per cent than 70 per cent.
I will have more to say about the
changing composition of new home
building in future articles in 2014.
Focusing for now on the short term
outlook, it is encouraging to find
evidence that 2013/14 will be another
year of growth for detached house
28 Australian Window Association Summer 2013
starts. Note that attached dwelling starts are forecast to decline
this financial year.
HIA and RP Data recently released the latest Land Report.
It signals further upside for detached house starts.
The volume of residential land sales posted strong growth of 18.2
per cent in the June 2013 quarter to reach a level of 17,170. This
is the highest quarterly volume achieved since the March quarter
of 2010. Over the first half of 2013, land sales increased by 26.4
per cent to be 16.9 per cent higher than the volume recorded
for the six months to June 2012. This is a strong result for
residential land sales.
There is a close (lagged) relationship between rpdata.com HIA land sales and the number of detached house starts. The
upward momentum in residential land sales whic