$ 587 million and $ 467.5 million . Even “ Man of Steel ” didn ’ t live up to the grand expectations of Warner Bros .’ former film chief , Jeff Robinov , who greenlit the movie and predicted that the Superman pic would be the most successful in the studio ’ s history .
would receive it , despite Johnny Depp ’ s role as Tonto .
Some analysts are predicting the pic , which cost more than $ 250 million to make , could rival the $ 200 million write-down Disney took last year on “ John Carter .”
Gauging the level of audience interest in a particular subject matter — be it original or not — is something studios have always been eager to nail down early in the development process .
Piedmont Media Research has begun to work with studios testing a film ’ s concept and correlating that to its box office potential . For instance , as early as February , the newbie company predicted “ R . I . P . D .” would be one of this summer ’ s biggest flops . The film , which opened with a dismal $ 12.7 million domestic , earned a composite score of just 137 , according to Piedmont ’ s consumer engagement rating system ; a film needs to score at least 250 to be successful at the box office , according to Piedmont prexy Josh Lynn .
One Flew Over
“ World War Z ” was the only big summer film so far to kickstart an original franchise , with a second installment already in the works and potential for a third .
Studios are showing no signs of letting up on their big franchise bets . Neither are their investors .
“ For me , the business of tentpoles is about generating franchises ,” De Fanti said . “ The more tentpoles that are being made , the more risky the first installment of a potential franchise is going to be . That ’ s why I think everybody needs to be asking hard questions about what is a real tentpole and what is a faux tentpole .”
Studios in general must do a better job of weighing the commercial potential of their big bets vs . their cost , said De Fanti .
In Disney ’ s view , “ The Lone Ranger ” was the perfect “ IP ” — Hollywood ’ s overused term for intellectual property — to exploit . But some observers believe the studio grossly overestimated how today ’ s audiences
“ Instead of throwing money at a film or an actor and hoping for the best , there is a better , more analytic way to determine beforehand if a film is worth making , and at what specific dollar value ,” Lynn said .
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