of worldwide box office revenue , is in a growth mode , the North American market has remained relatively flat over the past decade . The question : With big-budget event movies cannibalizing each other , will the overseas market grow fast enough to make up for the collateral damage ?
“ At some point , things have to change ,” said entertainment attorney Fred Bernstein , who was president of Columbia Pictures from 1994 through 1997 . “ I don ’ t think the audience is necessarily as expansive as it needs to be to absorb all of the studios only making $ 200 million dollar special effects-laden extravaganzas .”
Even with growth regions like Asia and Latin America , and the seemingly voracious appetite for American movies in many parts of the world , the studios must figure out how to make movies more economically , and get a handle on escalating production and marketing costs , which continue to squeeze already thin profit margins .
Jean-Luc De Fanti , managing partner at Hemisphere Media Capital , which co-financed such big budget films as “ World War Z ,” “ The Smurfs ,” “ Men in Black 3 ” and “ The
Adventures of Tintin ,” said fiscal control is imperative .
“ There is a global market for big movie content , but it has to be made at more reasonable costs ,” maintained De Fanti . “ I don ’ t think the international marketplace is immune to the issue of overcrowding , particularly when the releases are so close together .”
Glut on the Horizon
What ’ s more , overcrowding isn ’ t poised to get any better in the foreseeable future .
In 2015 , between May and August , the studios will release just as many — if not more — high-profile sequels , reboots and tentpoles . It is expected to be one of the most pricey , loaded summers in decades , with the likes of Disney-Marvel ’ s “ The Avengers ” sequel , “ Age of Ultron ,” Fox ’ s “ Independence Day 2 ,” Disney ’ s “ Pirates of the Caribbean 5 ,” Sony ’ s “ The Smurfs 3 ” and Paramount ’ s “ Terminator .”
“ This summer certainly showed that the summer alone cannot sustain this number of tentpoles ,” explained Paramount vice chairman Rob Moore . “ The one thing that everybody has to re-evaluate is looking at the calendar and discussing when you have the best shot at being successful during non-peak times .”
Historically , studios have turned to dates earlier in the spring to avoid overcrowding ( a la the first “ Hunger Games ” and “ Alice in Wonderland ”), and some observers predict the same will happen in the next two years . But there ’ s little wiggle room , as some months always seem to be bad for tentpoles ( think January / February , September / October ).
One of the startling revelations about this summer ’ s duds is how accurately they were predicted . Cowen and Co .’ s May 3 report forecast that at least four big-budget action adventure movies would fail , and analyst Doug Creutz modelled five : “ Lone Ranger ,” “ White House Down ,” “ World War Z ,” “ After Earth ” and “ R . I . P . D .” “ World War Z ” was the lone outlier — just by the skin of its teeth .
The summer ’ s congestion not only resulted in some epic failures , it also stunted several of the season ’ s more successful entries . Consider “ The Hangover Part III ,” whose $ 350 million worldwide gross was far less than its two predecessors ’ respective takes of
26 | WGSA MAG July 2013