Vanderbilt Political Review Spring 2014 | Page 5

SPRING 2014 mester and can be conducted under lessthan-ideal safety conditions. They are a sore topic for Beijing’s leadership, which is often pressured by human rights organizations to ensure that such abortions stop. Yet while the urban Chinese clearly have reason to follow the one-child policy, the rural Chinese see many reasons to disregard it. When Deng Xiaoping enact- INTERNATIONAL veloping countries between 1970 and 1998. Indeed, some argue that the onechild policy was not necessary and that the birthrate in China would have fallen naturally as it modernized. If this argument is correct, then the strict conditions of the one-child policy may have been for nothing. Moreover, many families in the rising urban population of China would completely exempt from the policy; for example, non-Han Chinese – who make up about nine percent of China’s population – are exempt because the Chinese government did not believe forcing the policy on these minorities would be worth the political dissent that would arise. Moreover, because many of these ethnic minorities live in areas where the Some argue that the one-child policy was not necessary and that the birthrate in China would have fallen naturally as it modernized. If this argument is correct, then the strict conditions of the one-child policy may have been for nothing. ed his initial reforms and freed up farmland for private ownership, the household – rather than the township – became the unit of production in agriculture. As a result, the number of workers in the household became important, because the more family members there were to work on the farm, the more productive the farm could be. Because of this, rural farmers have found it acceptable to ignore the one-child policy, stomaching the penalties of having extra children in order to have a larger family and the additional work capacity it brings; the assumption is that the increased profits from farming will far exceed any fines for having extra children. In addition, the incentives that the Chinese government offers its people to comply with the one-child policy have little weight in rural China. Rural peasants tend to build their own homes – rather than purchase them – and only send their children to school for a couple of years until they can start working. Thus, fertility rates tend to be much higher for rural Chinese than urban Chinese. The Chinese Communist Party claims that the one-child policy has prevented 400 million births since its inception in 1979. Nonetheless, many disagree with that figure; The New York Times points out that the birthrate in China changed similarly to the birthrates of other de- prefer to only have one child regardless of whether or not there was a policy in place, and China has been urbanizing at a rapid rate. According to June Teufel Dreyer, author of China’s Political System: Modernization and Tradition, only twenty-six percent of the Chinese population lived in urban areas in 1990, while in 2009, forty-four percent did. As this trend continues, one would expect birth rates to decline in parallel. Living in a Chinese city is costly – education and healthcare are particularly expensive – and the rising Chinese middle class simply cannot afford more than one child. In both China and the rest of the world, urban families have fewer children than rural families, and as a country becomes more modernized, the birthrate falls. Moreover, it must be noted that the one-child policy actually does not apply to the majority of Chinese people. China’s National Population and Family Planning Commission reports that only forty percent of the Chinese population – or 150 million Chinese households – )