83 . Table 6 is therefore important , because it suggests that the national impact of the Uni Connect programme is likely to be limited by the scale of the programme , with just 17.2 per cent of learners in target areas in the most recent cohort receiving the full amount of engagement intended in the programme design .
Gaps in application outcomes
84 . This section presents application outcomes for learners from Uni Connect target areas ( whether their Key Stage 4 school has been identified as having received Uni Connect engagement or not ). It compares these outcomes with those of learners from other areas , which are shown to have followed a similar pattern to the differences presented previously between learners from the most and least represented areas , as indicated by POLAR3 . These trends are characterised by large persistent gaps in application rates and placed rates between those living in Uni Connect areas and those not , with much smaller gaps in offer rates and acceptance rates between these groups .
85 . As we would expect , there is considerable overlap between Uni Connect areas and POLAR3 quintile 1 areas , with 84 per cent of learners in POLAR3 quintile 1 areas also living in Uni Connect areas . This is because these areas were specifically chosen as those with the greatest potential to increase participation from the least represented areas .
86 . Because of this overlap , the trends in the application process for learners from Uni Connect areas and those from other areas follow a very similar pattern as described for POLAR3 quintiles 1 and 5 previously .
87 . Nonetheless , some learners in POLAR3 quintile 1 areas will not have been targeted by the Uni Connect programme , because although their area had low participation rates , the average GCSE attainment was also relatively low . If the Uni Connect programme is having an impact on participation rates , we would expect to see this more clearly among learners from targeted areas , than we would for POLAR3 quintile 1 areas more broadly .
88 . Another important difference is that learners from non-Uni Connect areas are a much larger group than those from POLAR3 quintile 5 areas , which only includes learners from areas in the top-fifth of participation rates across the UK . For this reason , the application rates for learners living outside Uni Connect areas are consistently lower than those presented above for POLAR3 quintile 5 learners .
89 . In spite of these differences , Figure 8 shows that application rates have been increasing by approximately the same amount each year in both Uni Connect target areas and other areas . The gap in application rates therefore remained broadly unchanged between 2012 and 2020 , before widening by 1.2 percentage points between 2020 and 2021 .
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