Navigating the future with its surprises
A reflection by Louis Fourie , founding partner of the Regarding my Life programme
Besides life ’ s two certainties — Caesar ’ s hand in our pockets and the matter of our own impermanence — there is another one we repeatedly tend to overlook : The future will surprise .
In testing times , we extrapolate misery ; and time after time underestimate the world ’ s ( and our own ) ability to bounce back .
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We love to extrapolate the future . In good times , we often step into the quicksand of hurbis ; and get trapped by deceptions of invincibility .
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Still , remember two and a half years ago ? We were six months down the path of Ramaphoria , the name “ Zondo ” was becoming a comforting news item and the nation ’ s month-old William Web Cup celebrations dwarfed concerns about the country ’ s economic growth rate of only 0.2 % for the year . We took comfort in the country ’ s gross domestic growth projection of closer to 2 % for 2020 and looked forward to life after state capture . We were inspired by a livewire one-monther at Eskom ’ s helm , who cancelled his December holiday to sort out loadshedding . Things were on the up !
Three months later , our lives , however , went quiet . No cars on the highway , no feet in shopping malls , no toiling in office buildings , no chattering diners at packed eateries , no passengers at airports … all over the world .
No one projected this turn of events , although Bill Gates probably murmured “ I tried to warn you ”. Our country ’ s official COVID-19 infections stood at around 800 in May 2020 and COVID-19-related deaths at 30 .
The year 2020 turned out bleak . The global economy shrank by close to 5 % – and South Africa ’ s by some 6.5 %. And in the two years to where we are today , families globally are estimated to have lost at least 20 million to the COVID-19 pandemic ; South African families , around 300 000 loved ones .
The world ’ s monetary authorities implemented unprecedented programmes to address liquidity shortages and prevent market freezes amid the lockdown carnage ; South Africa ’ s interest rates
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