The Geographer Spring 2014 | Page 11

The Geographer Independence: Immigration 8-9 Spring 2014 Geography, Difference and the Question of Scale Helen Packwood and Professor Allan Findlay FRSGS, University of St Andrews Population growth in Scotland has continued to increase over the past decade and looks likely to meet the Scottish Government’s official population target, which is to match average European (EU15) growth from 2007 to 2017. Population growth has long been viewed as a key priority for the devolved Scottish Government, and at the core of its strategy for economic growth in Scotland. The latest population growth in Scotland is slightly lower than the EU15 average; however, for most of the period since 2007 it has exceeded this level. Scotland’s population has grown by 3% since 2006-7, whereas the average across the EU15 countries has been 2%. Therefore Scotland seems on track to meet its population target. Immigration plays an important role in maintaining this population growth in Scotland, and the Scottish Government sees continued population inflows as central to maintaining this demographic growth. However, Scotland still has a relatively small immigrant population (c7% of usual residents) compared with other European (EU27) nations. Figure 1 reveals the geography of international migration to Scotland. Poland emerges as the most common non-UK country of birth in Scotland, despite being ranked 18th in 2001. As the most populous of the ‘Accession 8’ countries, Poland has been the biggest sender of East-Central European migrants since the enlargement of the European Union in 2004. Polish migrants now form 15% of all foreign-born residents living in Scotland. In contrast to crude binary comparisons between England and Scotland, this article builds on the work of McCollum et al (CPC Briefing Paper 10 2013) and argues that a more pertinent comparison is to consider how Scotland compares with English regions. Figure 2 reveals the quantity and origins of foreign-born residents in the English regions and in Scotland. It is quickly apparent that, in terms of ‘distinctiveness’, the outlier is not Scotland but London. The proportion of nonUK born residents in Scotland is similar to the English regions, with the notable exception of London. By asking respondents, “If you were not born in the United Kingdom, when did you most recently arrive to live here?”, the 2011 Census gives an interesting snapshot of how long migrants have been resident in the UK. Scotland has a Figure 1: Top ten countries of birth for the non UK-born population in Scotland, 2011. Source: 2011 Census larger proportion of (ONS 2013). recent international migrants than any of the English regions. There is a varied distribution of recent migrants to the UK, with 22% of Scotland’s migrants arriving within the last two years (before the 2011 census); in contrast, the West Midlands, London, and the South-East of England have seen a smaller Figure 2: Country of birth of international migrants, Scotland and England by region, 2011. Source: Authors’ own analysis of 2011 Census (NRS 2013 and ONS 2013). proportion of recent migrants. of England. Moreover, establishing A further 22% of international migration policies suited to migrants in Scotland arrived within the different needs of regional less than five years prior to the economies is a policy option 2011 census; again this marks that has been taken up by some a distinction with migration to other parts of the UK. Based on states such as Canada, and is an this data, migration to Scotland option open to the Scottish and appears to be relatively transient, UK governments regardless of the with migrants settling for shorter outcome of the 2014 referendum periods than in England. on Scottish independence. Analysis of the age of migrants In examining Scotland alongside on arrival in the UK reveals an regions within England, it is interesting picture of the nature of apparent that London has a much new migrants. These figures point more diverse population than to where young migrant families anywhere else in England. In fact, are arriving in the UK. At 17%, London stands in contrast to many Scotland is among the top three areas of the country, particularly locations for migrants arriving aged geographically ‘peripheral’ regions 0-4 years old. In contrast, just 9% such as the South-West, the Northof London’s foreign-born population East, and Scotland. The ‘London arrived aged 0-4 years. effect’ clearly has a bearing on the This analysis has important policy UK and English averages in relation implications that impact on the to most migration statistics, current debate on constitutional which underlines the importance change. While it is possible to argue of examining the data at a range that current UK immigration policy of s