显而易见，房地产收益率
比三类股票更加稳定，因
为所有时间段中的收益范
围非常相似。
债券
债券的长期平均收益率为6%，在今天的低利率环境
中似乎较高，但这是因为利率在1981年达到最高值
15%后一直在下降。此外，随着利率下降，债券价值上
升。在过去五年中，公司和政府债券平均收益率为4%,
因为利率不可能会继续降低。市场预期是利率必须上
升。
目前，预期将来利率呈上升趋势，所以随着债券本金
价值下降，债券总收益应该会继续下降。大部分投资
者将会投资期限更短的债券，以避免本金损失，但是
其利息收益也非常低。
很多投资者正在寻找更高收益、中等风险的投资，而
债券不是很符合此要求。附表1中的收益率图表显示
了收益率波动性。请注意，在全部时间周期中债券标
准偏差平均为5.8%。假定平均收益率6%，减去5.8%
的波动率，意味着投资者在经营状况不佳的年份中收
益率为0.2%，远远低于通胀率。
57
BONDS
Bonds have had a long-term average return of 6 percent,
which seems high in today’s low interest rate environment,
but this is because interest rates have been dropping since
1981, when they peaked at 15 percent. Also, as interest
rates drop, bond values go up.
During the past five years, the average corporate and
government bond returns have averaged 4 percent as
interest rates could go no lower. The market expectation
is that interest rates must rise. Now with a future of rising
interest rates, bond total returns should continue to drop
as bond principal values decline. Most investors are going
to much shorter bond durations to avoid the loss of
principal, but their interest yields are also very low.
Many investors are searching for higher income yields
with moderate risk, and bonds do not fill this requirement
very well. The return chart in Exhibit 1, shows the return
volatility. Note that the standard deviation of bonds has
averaged 5.8 percent over all of the time frames. Taking
the average return of 6 percent and subtracting the 5.8
percent volatility means that investors would expect a 0.2
percent return in a bad year, which is well below inflation.
THE CHINA INVESTOR