The China Investor Volume 1, Issue 2 | Page 57

规模扩大, 必须租借更多办公场所 。 需求增加推高租 用率, 房东能够增加租金—— 这是房地产收益的两个 组成部分 。 长期以来, 房地产收益增长速度一直高于 通胀 。 所以, 拥有房地产一直优于持有受通胀影响的 债券 。
股票价格上涨来自于对投资收入增加的预期或变现 。 当 市 场 处 于 理 性 状 态 时, 房 地 产 价 格 也 会 以相 同 的 方 式变化 。 但是实际驱动房地产价格的是资金流 。 当某 类资产吸引力增加, 受到热捧, 会有更多的资金流入, 推高价格 。 有时, 尽管市场会处于短期非理性状态, 但 是这些波动最终会被更加理性的预期克服, 市场通常 会予以更正 。
长期以来, 房地产产生了“ 不同于股票的增值”, 但是其 长期价格增长优于通胀 。 长期以来, 房地产的总收益 一直介于股票和债券之间, 但是其波动性远远低于股 票, 基 于 风 险 的 收 益 率 高 于 债 券 。 以 下 图 表 显 示了 过 去 35 年的房地产 、 股票和债券历史对比情况的现有数 据 。 附表 1 显示了三大主要资产类别的历史收益率— 债券 、 房地产和股票( 通过三项主要股票指数覆盖大 盘 、 中 盘 和 小 盘 股 进 行 比 对) 。
利用涵盖过去四个美国经济周期的 5,10,15,20,30 和 35 年平均数据, 平均收益率相对稳定, 收益率波动 也较平稳 。 然而, 过去五年中的平均收益反映了自美 国大萧条以来收益率有所恢复, 所以过去五年平均收 益率应高于其长期平均收益率( 除历史利率非常低的 债券外) 。 economy expands, companies grow and they must lease more space. That increased demand increases occupancies and landlords are able to increase rents-- these are the two components of income for real estate. Historically, real estate income growth has outpaced inflation. Thus, owning real estate has been better than having an inflationadjusted bond.
Price appreciation in stocks comes from the anticipation of, or the realization of increased income from an investment( when the market is being rational). Real estate prices act the same way when the market is rational. But it is actually capital flows that drive real estate prices. When an asset class is more attractive and in favor, more money flows in-- driving prices up. There are times when the markets are not rational in the short term, but these emotions are eventually overcome by more rational expectations and the markets usually correct. Historically, real estate has produced“ not quite stock-like appreciation” but has had long-term price growth that is better than inflation.
Real estate’ s total return has consistently been somewhere between stocks and bonds historically, but with substantially less volatility than stocks and a higher risk-adjusted return than bonds. Charts in this article provide a historic comparison over the last 35 years of available data. Exhibit 1 shows the historic returns for the three major asset classes— bonds, real estate and stocks( with the three major stock indices that cover large, medium and small cap stocks). Using 5-, 10-, 15-, 20-, 30- and 35-year averages that cover the past four U. S. economic cycles, the return averages are relatively consistent, as are the volatility of those returns. However, the return average for the past five years reflects the recovery in returns from the Great Recession in the U. S. and thus the past five-year average return should be above their long-term averages( except for bonds with very low historic interest rates).
1980-2016
收益率波动性
Return Volatility
附表 1
EXHIBIT 1
5 年平均值
10 年平均值
15 年平均值
20 年平均值
30 年平均值
35 年平均值
5-Year Avg
10-Year Avg
15-Year Avg
20-Year Avg
25-Year Avg
30-Year Avg
30.00
24.2 %
25.00
20.00
19.3 % 16.7 %
15.00 7.6 %
10.00 5.8 %
5.00
0
债券 房地产 NCREIF 罗素 2000 标普 500 纳斯达克
Bond S & P INV Gr Corp
Real Estate NCREIF
Russell 2000 S & P 500
NASDAQ
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