样具有构思大项目的能力，但是他们经常会受到投资
方和贷款方的制约。
市场周期性
中国房地产价值已经经历了大幅增长；不必担心房价
下降，特别是
“一线”城市。很多中国投资者认为美国“一线”城市的表
现会与中国类似。不幸的是，美国市场的成熟度使得房
地产行业更容易受到需求周期性下降的影响。资深美
国投资者正在密切关注我们所处的阶段；他们具有丰
富的、有时是痛苦的经验，使得其可以根据下行周期的
影响做出调整。虽然没有任何两个周期是相同的，但预
期市场将来将会减缓增长速度是合理的。
投资周期性市场
投资者不能因为关注周期性风险而不对某个市场进行
投资，即使是在后期。事实上，很多专业人士确认，其
愿意在下行周期继续为市场有效定价，继续购置资产，
产生其最佳收益率。这需要采取长期投资战略和具备
判断市场定价失衡的能力。
周期的每个阶段中都存在机会，审慎的投资者会调整
其投资策略应对市场周期性。例如，在恢复周期初期，
存在着以低于置换成本的价格购买现有房产的机会。
由于购置价格被推高，新建项目开始成为合理的投资
选择。在周期后期，夹层融资和长期持有策略更加合
理。在经济衰退时期，当每个人都感到害怕时，不良资
产购置是一种明智的投资策略。
另外，美国各个城市会有其自身的周期。与中国“一线”
城市类似，很多受到中国投资者追捧的美国门户城市
的确具有良好流动性的优势，但是这并不意味着门户
城市是最佳的投资目的地。每项资产，只要价格合适，
就是一项好的投资，与其地段、建筑材料和承租情况无
关。
反之亦然，一线城市中最好的房地产，若价格不对，就
是一项糟糕的投资。随着投资者越来越精明，寻找并
聘用合格的投资专业人士，并且将目光移向本国市场
之外，他们应该做好准备，采取客观、开明的投资流
程，以创造最佳机会。
“整体资产” 与
“公寓私有共有” 所有权
两国市场之间的另一个不同因素是 “倾向于直接所有
权”，这一点在中国市场中的住宅房地产较常见。中国
投资者绝大部分倾向于拥有房地产，以满足其办公和个
人需求。在美国，租赁房产用于办公和个人用途更为常
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Many of these projects are under development; their
success may hinge on their ability to bypass the U.S.
debt capital markets, have significantly more equity
than most U.S. developments, and most importantly,
utilize equity raising processes in their home market,
under their domestic legal statutes. Under U.S. capital
constraints, it is hard to develop a large project unless
the developer can prove to the capital markets that the
demand is real and supportable. In a cyclical business,
large projects inherently have more risks, because it is
hard to control the economic condition at exit. Developers
are equally capable of big ideas in the U.S., but they are
frequently reined in by investors and lenders.
MARKET CYCLICALITY
China has enjoyed tremendous growth in real estate
values; there is no need to worry about housing prices
going down, especially in the “first tier” cities. Many Chinese
investors believe that U.S. “first tier” cities will behave
similarly. Unfortunately, the mature nature of the U.S.
market makes the real estate industry more susceptible to
cyclical declines in demand. Savvy U.S investors are paying
very close attention to what stage of the cycle we may be
in; their abundant, and sometimes painful, experience,
make them attuned to the impacts of a down cycle. While
no two cycles are the same, it is reasonable to expect that
the market will slow in the future.
INVESTING IN A CYCLICAL MARKET
Being mindful of cycle risks is not a reason to shy
away from investing in a market, even at a late stage.
In fact, many professionals acknowledge that their
willingness to continue to price the market effectively
through a slowdown, and continue to acquire assets,
produced their best returns. This requires a long-term
investment strategy and ability to identify market pricing
imbalance. Opportunities exist in every stage of a cycle;
prudent investors adjust their investment strategies to
compensate for market cyclicality.
For example, early in the recovery cycle there are
opportunities to buy existing properties below
replacement cost. As acquisition prices are pushed up,
new development starts to make sense. Late in the cycle,
mezzanine financing and longer-term hold strategies
are more sound. In the depth of a recession when
everybody is fearful, distressed acquisitions proved to
be a smart investment strategy.
Additionally, individual cities in the U.S. will have their
own cycles. Many U.S. gateway cities chased by Chinese
investors do share the same benefits of good liquidity,
similar to Chinese “first tier” cities, but that doesn’t always
translate into gateway cities being the best place to invest.
Every asset, regardless of location, construction materials,
and tenancy is a good investment at the right price. The
reverse is also true, the best real estate in a first-tier city is a
bad investment at the wrong price. As investors get more
sophisticated, seek out and engage qualified investment
professionals, and look beyond the perceptions of their
home markets, they should be prepared to embrace an
THE CHINA INVESTOR