发展, 虽然与美国在二战后的繁荣类似, 但规模更大 。 人口数量 、 中产阶级的快速增长 、 可支配储蓄的设立 和房地产所有权的变更使得中国前所未有的发展更加 集中和更具爆发力 。 满足上述发展产生的后续对房地 产的需求意味着在今后数年内, 可能几十年内, 新开发 项目在中国房地产总存量中所占的比例将会进一步增 加 。
中国市场中似乎存在着永远无法满足的承租人需求, 近年来, 事实证明这一认知是正确的 。 这催生了一种投 资心态, 即认为承租人将会大量存在, 具有租赁需求, 或者更可能希望拥有新建房屋, 从而产生了“ 房屋建成 后就会吸引来承租人” 的心理 。 在与房地产投资相关的 所有风险中, 需求 / 租赁风险是两个市场中存在差异最 大的风险之一 。
市场成熟度对购置的影响
截至日前, 由于总体的商业谨慎情绪, 中国资本尚未能 够有效参与现有房地产资产的购置 。 在中国制度资本 购买现有资产方面, 已有一些值得注意的案例; 这些 资产通常是“ 炫耀性” 资产, 会令所有者产生自豪感, 规 模较大( 按照美国标准), 且由于买方愿意支付大额保 费, 卖方一直希望放慢销售流程 。
只有时间会告诉你此类资产是否是优质投资 。 然而, 随 着中国资本提高其在美国房地产市场中的参与度, 中 国资本应提高灵活性, 在大部分交易的习惯性时间内 运作, 这一点将会变得越来越重要 。 支付更高的保费, 参与一个高效的市场, 不会产生预期投资结果 。 找到并 聘用一个强大的 、 值得信赖的 、 具有双重文化背景的投 资团队是重要的第一步 。
市场成熟度对开发的影响
美国和中国房地产市场的成熟度产生的另一个差异是 美国市场中大规模开发项目要远远少于中国市场 。 更 加成熟的市场往往会处于更好的相对供求平衡状态; 对大规模开发项目的需求要少于成长型市场, 如中国 。 美国境内项目的规模是根据认知需求确定的, 在美国, 需求与中国非常不同 。 这一点让大多数大型中国投资 者感到惊讶, 很多中国投资者在首次进入美国市场时 本身就是开发商 。 这些初期项目中大部分项目的规模让 美国房地产专业人士感到惊叹( 和不可思议) 。
这些项目中大部分项目正在建设, 其成功可能会取决于 以下因素: 其避开美国债务资本市场的能力, 比大部分 美国开发项目拥有更多股权的能力, 最重要的是, 按照 其国内法规在其本国市场中利用股权融资的能力 。 在 美国资本限制规定项下, 很难建设一个大型项目, 除非 开发商能够向资本市场证明需求是真实的, 并有证据 支撑 。 在周期性行业中, 大型项目本身具有更多风险, 因为很难控制退出时的经济状况 。 美国的开发商也同 estate stock. The ability to purchase an asset that is already built, already occupied or partially occupied significantly mitigates this occupancy risk and is viewed more favorably in the U. S. Consequently, purchasing existing assets is much more typical and efficient in the U. S. From initial marketing to selection of a buyer is usually accomplished in 30 days or less, and pricing produces lower returns than new developments because these assets are perceived to have a lower risk profile.
Conversely, China’ s spectacular economic growth over the past 30 years, while similar to the U. S. boom post-World War II, is on an even larger scale. The size of the population, the rapid growth of a middle class, the creation of disposable savings and changes in real estate ownership have made China’ s unprecedented growth more concentrated and explosive. The subsequent demand for real estate to meet that growth, means years, possibly decades, in which development will remain a much larger percentage of the total real estate stock in the country. There is a seemingly insatiable tenant demand in China’ s markets and that perception has been proven accurate over the recent past. This has created an investment mindset that assumes tenants will be abundant and will want to lease, or more likely, own any new development, producing a“ build it and they will come” mindset. Of all the risks associated with real estate investment the risk of demand / leasing is one of the two most often skewed between the two markets.
MATURITY’ S IMPACT ON ACQUISITION
Chinese capital, due to general business caution, has not been able to effectively participate in the acquisition of existing real estate assets. There have been notable cases when institutional Chinese capital has purchased existing assets; typically, they are“ trophy” assets that come with a“ pride of ownership”, large( by U. S. standards), and the seller has been willing to slow the sale process because of the large premium the buyer is willing to pay. Only time will tell if these are good investments. However, as Chinese capital increases its participation in the U. S. real estate markets, it will become increasingly important that it become more agile and work within the customary timing of most transactions. Paying a higher, premium price to participate in an efficient market will not produce the desired investment result over time. Finding and engaging a strong, trusted bi-cultural investment group is an important first step.
MATURITY’ S IMPACT ON DEVELOPMENT
Another difference driven by the maturation of the U. S. and China real estate markets is that large scale development projects are far less common in U. S. markets than in China. More mature markets tend to be in more relative supply / demand balance; the need for large scale development is less common than in growth markets such as China. Projects in the U. S. are sized based on perceived demand and in the U. S. demand is very different than in China. This surprised many large Chinese investors, many of whom are developers themselves, when they first entered the U. S. market. U. S. real estate professionals have watched in awe( and disbelief) at the scale of many of these initial projects.
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