中国开发商在其本国市场中面临上述风险的可能性较 小, 因为中国房地产市场是一个成长型市场, 且政府单 方面控制土地供应 、 土地成本 、 授权和竞争性开发 。 在 美国, 土地销售通常发生在两个私人个体之间, 取决于 土地的当前授权, 美国开发商无法承受超支, 否则他们 会面临建造的投资项目无法产生利润的风险 。
人们常说土地价值是残余价值计算 。 在任何市场中, 一 旦开发商对某项资产的未来价值做出了假设, 该开发商 必须反向推算交付项目的成本和风险, 此后才能确定 其愿意为土地支付的价格 。
为什么上述差异对于从投资角度理解两国市场非常重 要? 在美国投资的很多中国投资者本身是开发商 。 了解 美国模型将会有助于中国开发商更好地理解美国市场 中 的 开发 风 险, 帮 助 投 资 者 更 好 地了解 资 本 结 构, 帮 助 开发商和投资者找到应扮演的正确角色 。 相反地, 了解 美国模型也会有助于美国开发商了解中国投资者的目 标和风险偏好 。 与生活中的很多方面一样, 相互理解往 往是通向共同成功之路 。
在中国, 对成熟的市场基本要素的理解在不断加深 。 在 个人投资市场中, 政府正在试图对市场加强监管, 降低 失控的上涨趋势 。 因此, 我们可以预计, 当增值预期降 低时, 将来价格上涨速度也将会放缓 。 问题在于, 中国 正处于哪个发展阶段? 这一点很难回答, 在很多程度上 取决于中产阶级的持续增长 、 从农村向城市的人口流 动和总体经济的持续增长 。
随着这些问题逐步厘清, 中国市场对国内和国外的机 构投资者的吸引力应该会更大 。 其他差异可能需要更 长的时间协调, 但是随着中国市场不断成熟, 我们相 信美国市场的很多特征将会开始在中国出现 。 这会在 几年后还是几十年后发生最终将会取决于整套变革措 施 。 届时, 明智的投资者应该: 注意上述差异, 避免受 到本国市场认知的不利影响, 使用各个市场中的当地 专业能力最大程度地提高财务绩效 。 本文描述了两个 市场之间的部分差异, 希望通过提出一些问题, 促使当 前和将来的国际投资者获取必要的专业知识, 顺利完 成非常复杂的投资过程 。 in any market, makes assumptions of what the future value of an asset will be, he must work backward through the costs and risks of delivering the project, and only then can he determine what he is willing to pay for land.
Why are these differences important to understand from an investing perspective? Many Chinese investors in the U. S. are developers themselves. Understanding the U. S. model will help Chinese developers better understand development risks in the U. S. markets, investors better understand the capital stack, and both developers and investors find the right role to play. Conversely, it would be helpful for U. S. developers to understand the goals and risk appetite of Chinese investors. Like many areas of life, mutual understanding is often the road to mutual success. An understanding of mature market fundamentals is growing in China.
In the individual investment market, the government is attempting to inject discipline into the market which is lowering runaway appreciation. Consequently, pricing can be expected to moderate in the future as appreciation expectations moderate. The question is, at what point in its development is China? It is difficult to say; much depends on the continued growth of a middle class, migration from rural to urban environments and the continued growth of the overall economy. As these become clearer, China markets should become more attractive to institutional investors, both domestic and foreign. Other differences may take longer to reconcile, but as China’ s real estate market matures, we believe many characteristics of the U. S. markets will begin to appear in China. Whether that happens in years or decades will ultimately depend on a broad package of changes.
Until then, smart investors should: heed the differences discussed above, resist falling prey to home market perceptions, and use local expertise in each market to maximize financial performance. This article illustrates a portion of the differences between the two markets. Hopefully, it raises enough questions to compel current and future international investors to seek the expertise necessary to navigate through what is a very complex investment process.
周楠
周楠先生是 EliteCapital Partners 公司共同创 始人和管理合伙人 。 周先生在企业并购 、 金融 管理和投资方面有着 20 余年的丰富经验 。 创立 EliteCapitalPartners 公司前, 他曾作为首席财务官 任职于加州两家迅速发展的公司, 还在一家财富 500 强企业和一家中型市场并购公司中担任过多个企业金融和投资 方面的职位 。 他在南加州大学获得工商管理硕士学位, 还是城市土 地协会( Urban Land Institute) 多户国家委员会( Multifamily national council) 成员 。
Bill Nan Zhou
Bill Nan Zhou is co-founder and managing partner of Elite Capital Partners. Zhou has over 20 years of merger & acquisition, financial management and investment experience. Prior to Elite, he served as chief financial Officer of two fast growing companies in California, and held various corporate finance and investment positions in a fortune 500 Company and a middle market M & A firm. He earned his MBA degree from University of Southern California. Zhou serves on the multifamily national council of the Urban Land Institute.
WWW. THECHINAINVESTOR. COM 34