The China Investor Volume 1, Issue 1

金的中国投资者将会继续活跃于美国房地产市场。” 一家总部位于芝加哥的全球会计事务所 Baker Tilly Virchow Krause的EB-5经济分析师和顾问Kevin Wright 预测的情况则要更加严峻。他认为，“自1月1日开始生效的货币限制规定将会产生巨大影响，使得普通中国公民投资外国市场的难度大幅增加。” 另一家总部位于芝加哥的商业房地产公司 Cushman & Wakefield也认为，中国的政策变化可能会使得投资速度放缓。然而，该公司负责中国对旧金山湾区和洛杉矶直接投资的高级董事总经理Xinyi McKinny则认为，中国投资者通常关注于长期投资，所以此项短期障碍将会产生的影响也只是暂时的。她说道，“由于中国政府资金外流限制规定，在2017 年9月之前，增长可能会出现放缓趋势，尽管由于投资者了解即将出台的限制规定，有时间采取措施达到其目标，总体影响应该会被减小。一般来说，短期现金流的即时性会抵消长期资本收益。” Cushman & Wakefield 执行副董事长 Marc D. Renard认为，简单来说，美国对中国投资者的吸引力太大，投资趋势很难放缓，Marc参与出售洛杉矶标志性建筑联合银行广场项目，他预计该项目将会吸引大批中国投资人。他说道，“美国商业房地产提供当期收益，具有多样性，内在对抗通胀的机制。此外，美国商业房地产的历史表现已经证明，与大多数其他资产类别相比，美国商业房地产资产的回报率更高和波动性更低。因此，我们预计亚洲的资金将会继续加速流向美国。” 一家位于加利福尼亚州伯克利的房地产经纪公司 RosenConsulting Group预测，自2016年至2020年期间，整个商业房地产资产和住宅购置市场（不包括新建项目）中的中国投资项目投资金额将会达到2180 亿美元。此外，根据其报告，该公司还预测，在今后五年中，随着中国经济重新建立平衡，投资将会加速。根据亚洲协会标题为“开辟新天地”的报告，机构和个人投资者的市场专业能力正在不断提高。报告称，随着中国投资者在美国房地产市场中的地位逐步稳固，新的关系会不断形成，新的投资机会将会开始出现。美国市场最大的中国房地产投资者哪些重量级中国投资者对美国房地产的贡献最大？根据Real Capital Analytics数据，中国人寿保险，斥资78亿美元在美国购置房地产，是近两年进军美国房地产市场的中国公司之一。“他们进入美国市场的原因是在美国发展更容易”，RealCapital Analytics的 Costello说道。 Real Capital Analytics 统计的美国前20位中国房地产投资者：安邦保险，投资金额60亿美元；中国投 WWW.THECHINAINVESTOR.COM motivations are still there.” A caveat: The amount of money leaving China might shrink, said Phil Marra, U.S. Real Estate Funds leader at KPMG, an international auditor. “Because of the foreign currency restrictions and Chinese insurance regulators imposed limitations, we expect less cash flow out of China to the U.S.,” he said. “However, we believe there is still great demand for foreign direct investment to the United States. Chinese investors with capital outside of mainland China will continue to be active U.S. real estate investors in fiscal 2017 and beyond.” Kevin Wright, an EB-5 economist and consultant with Baker Tilly Virchow Krause, a global accounting firm based in Chicago, anticipated the scenario a bit tougher. “The currency restrictions that went into effect on Jan. 1 will have a huge effect, making it very difficult for the average Chinese person to invest in a foreign market,” he said. Cushman & Wakefield, another Chicago-based commerci al real estate firm, also warns that the policy changes in China might lower the speed of investment. Yet Xinyi McKinny, the company’s senior managing director of China direct investment in the San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles, said Chinese investors typically focus on long-term investment, so this short-term impediment will be viewed as such – temporary. “Growth will likely experience a slowing phase until September 2017 due to Chinese government capital outflow restrictions, although the overall impact should be muted, given that investors were aware of the pending restrictions and had time to take action to meet their goals,” she said. “Traditionally, long-term capital gain is outweighed by the immediacy of short- term cash flow.” Simply, America is too compelling for Chinese investors for the momentum to slow, contends Cushman & Wakefield’s executive vice chairman, Marc D. Renard, involved in selling Los Angeles’ iconic Union Bank Plaza, which he anticipates will attract considerable interest from the Chinese. “U.S. commercial real estate offers current yield, diversification and an intrinsic hedge against inflation,” he said. “In addition, the historical performance of U.S. commercial real estate has demonstrated superior returns and lower volatility than most other asset classes. As result, we expect to see a continued acceleration of capital from Asia into the U.S.” Rosen Consulting Group, a real estate economics firm in Berkeley, California, predicts the market will reach $218 billion in Chinese investment projects across commercial real estate assets and residential purchases – excluding new development - from 2016 through 2020. It also predicts an acceleration over the next five years as equilibrium in the Chinese economy is re-established, according to its report. Market expertise among institutional and individual investors is improving, according to the Asia Society’s “Breaking Ground” report. Relationships are forming and new opportunities are beginning to emerge as 12

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