NET ZERO IMPORTS
# Description C
Units
FY15( est.)
COMPENSATION |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total compensation( est.) |
Rs. Cr |
98 |
105 |
321 |
771 |
925 |
1,110 |
FY16( est.)
FY17( est.)
FY18( est.)
FY19( est.)
- Assembly compensation Rs. Cr 33 35 80 193 231 278- Component mfg. compensation Rs. Cr 65 70 241 578 694 833
D OPERATING SURPLUS( OS) Average price of a unit USD 346
Exchange rate for 2015-2020 |
Rs./ USD |
61.1 |
64.7 |
67.3 |
69.6 |
72.1 |
76.1 |
( IMF projections) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Operating surplus / output ratio |
% |
7.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
( Estimated from ASI 2012-13) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Value of output( estimated) |
Rs. Cr |
5,288 |
5,996 |
14,356 |
25,842 |
39,840 |
56,116 |
FY20( est.)
Operating surplus( est.) Rs. Cr 384 436 1,043 1,878 2,895 4,078
E
REVENUES |
|
|
Value Addition( Comp. + OS) |
Rs. Cr |
482 |
Central tax / GDP ratio % 10.7
541 1,365 2,649 3,820 5,188
Revenues( PIT + CIT + IDT)( est.) Rs. Cr. 52 58 146 284 410 557
The underlying assumptions are as follows: Ø On the demand side, the following assumptions have been
Ø The average number of employees required for assembling made: 1 million PCs in the Indian IT industry is 658 presently. We • FY 15 and FY16 estimates are based on actual demand assume that the same number of employees would be • An increase of 10 % in demand is assumed for FY17. required after enhancement of production in future.
Subsequently, an increase of 20 % in demand is
Ø The number of employees required for component assumed for FY18, FY19 and FY20. manufacturing is double the number of employees • The share of domestically manufactured PCs increases required for assembly presently. However, this multiple will from 24 % presently( FY16) to 50 % in FY17, 75 % in increase to 3 and then to 4, depending upon the level of
FY18, 90 % in FY19 and 100 % in FY20, i. e. net zero import substitution of components in due course. imports is achieved by 2020.
Ø The average salaries in PC assembly and component manufacturing is assumed to be Rs. 3 lakh pa for engineers, Rs. 2.4 lakh pa for technicians and Rs. 1.8 lakh for operators. The ratio of engineers, technicians, and operators is 1:1:8. It is assumed that the salaries and ratio of the respective resources would remain the same in the near future.
Ø The average price of a PC is USD 346 presently. We assume that this would remain constant in the near future.
Ø The IMF projections for exchange rates over the next 5 years have been used to arrive at the value of output in INR.
Ø Operating surplus of companies in the IT industry has been estimated using the operating surplus to output ratio for the electronics manufacturing industry from the Annual Survey of Industries( ASI) 2012-13.
Ø For estimating the tax revenues accruing from value addition in the IT manufacturing industry, the Central tax / GDP ratio for FY16 has been used.
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