Evaluating Space as the Next Critical Infrastructure Sector
Klein reflects three required functions shaped by orbital vulnerabilities : minimizing debris , coordinating proximity operations , and reducing electromagnetic interference ( Klein , 2020 ). Some vulnerabilities may be caused from cascading events from threats or completely derived from external , and frequently unalterable , influences . All listed vulnerabilities are made more significant by distance since all space-based assets reside at least 62 miles above sea level . From the terrestrial side , either ground control installations or on-orbit functions means the vast distances create a vulnerable attack surface where threats may interject detrimental effects . Orbital debris from objects either snagged by Earth ’ s gravity or manmade pieces remaining in orbit from either intentional or unintentional collisions can pose dangers to future mission . Coordinating space objects for mission events also poses dangers . All space objects possess velocity from their position and changing those vectors to maneuver near or around other objects can pose significant danger . These maneuvers can become more dangerous as one considers proximity and debris . Finally , space begins outside Earth ’ s atmosphere which minimizes the protection terrestrial objects receive to interplanetary electromagnetic interference from celestial bodies or artificial signals ( Moltz , 2019 ).
Any risk discussion would be remiss if not considering Black Swan principles . Accepted risks and vulnerabilities are largely based on known knowns or known unknowns , those concerns previously proven true or suspected to occur . Black Swan methodologies , from Nassim Taleb , are those actions which cannot be predicted from previous events with any reasonable certainty ( Taleb , 2010 ). An excellent example is Japan ’ s 2011 earthquake measuring 9.1 on the Richter scale and the fourth largest quake since seismologists began recording in 1900 ( Live Science Staff , 2011 ). Reconstructed seismic events from historical records suggest this was the first 9.0 or larger earthquake to ever hit Japan with the next largest event being a 8.6 quake in 1707 ( Live Science Staff , 2011 ). The 2011 earthquake reshaped all previous assessments and the impact on protection appeared through the Fukushima nuclear reactor at Fukushima . The reactor successfully withstood the quake ’ s initial impact but other safety estimates were based on being located 5.7m above sea level . The tsunami which hit the site was measured at 15m , rocking the site , and rendering it still unusable today ( World Nuclear Association , 2020 ). This event shows how one Black Swan event can change all previous estimates .
The final risk step address mitigation by developing the means to reduce or eliminate risk . Establishing space as a CI sector would grow the consolidated structure to discuss and suggest future mitigations . The ISAC may be the first step towards those goals but additional coordination will certainly be necessary . Terrestrial mitigation will likely prove easier than reducing orbital risk although the imposition of industry standards and communication could accelerate these processes . recent congressional report to Congress on Space
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