2016 - 2021 CTRM Market Outlook
forecast that vendor-supplied solutions will continue to see additional adoption ( particularly in the metals , ags and softs commodity categories , and in the Asia Pacific region ) and we believe the market for custom developed or bespoke solutions will not show significant growth from year-to-year for the foreseeable future .
In addition to 3rd party consulting revenues associated with the development and support of bespoke functionality , consultants and integrators also maintain a significant role in the implementation and support of vendor-deployed solutions . For the purposes of this market sizing analysis , ComTech includes these dollars as part of the global CTRM market size . For 2016 , we believe some $ 286 million was spent by customers of vendor-supplied CTRM solutions for the services of these consultants to provide assistance during the selection , implementation and integration of the newly acquired technologies . Though these revenues are down from 2015 ($ 308 million ), we continue to see more customers of vendor supplied CTRM solutions engaging with third parties to assist in their acquisition and implementation projects , and we expect to see increased spend in this category over the next several years . Based on historical activity and an increasing reliance on 3rd party implementation resources , we believe the expenditures for these consultants to be , on average , at least 3 times the amount spent on vendor supplied consulting resources .
In total across all revenue components , our analysis indicates the total annual global market for CTRM products to be $ 1.48 billion in 2016 . Further , based on market observations and year-to-date results provided by a few of the largest vendors , we anticipate 2017 full year market revenues be approximately $ 1.55 billion , slightly less than 5 % growth year over year .
MARKET OUTLOOK AND STUDY ASSUMPTIONS
The global CTRM market has been significantly impacted by the collapse in commodity prices over the last couple of years . While full-year CTRM market spending continued to show modest growth of slightly more than 2 % in 2014 despite the broad and deep declines in most commodity prices in the last half of the year , 2015 results indicated a reduction in spending , with the total global CTRM market declining almost 2 %. Though some improvement in commodity prices was seen in 2016 , reduced spending by almost all market participants - but particularly by producers , traders and merchants in almost all markets - was clearly evident as any hopes for a quick commodity market recovery faded through-out 2015 , leading to lower budgets and spending in 2016 . As a result , total spending for CTRM solutions and services declined by more than 7 % versus 2015 .
Despite only a modest improvement in commodity prices since January of 2016 , first half results from 2017 indicate that commodity market participants have somewhat adjusted to market conditions and are again spending for IT solutions . Though we do not anticipate that the full year 2017 will grow beyond the levels of 2015 , we do expect total CTRM spending in 2017 will show a solid increase over 2016 , growing 7-8 % over the previous year .
Beyond 2017 , the forecast is open to significant uncertainty . As we ’ ve previously noted , the market for CTRM products and services is relatively small . Though there are more than 100
© Commodity Technology Advisory LLC , 2016 , All Rights Reserved . 5