2016- 2021 CTRM Market Outlook
forecast that vendor-supplied solutions will continue to see additional adoption( particularly in the metals, ags and softs commodity categories, and in the Asia Pacific region) and we believe the market for custom developed or bespoke solutions will not show significant growth from year-to-year for the foreseeable future.
In addition to 3rd party consulting revenues associated with the development and support of bespoke functionality, consultants and integrators also maintain a significant role in the implementation and support of vendor-deployed solutions. For the purposes of this market sizing analysis, ComTech includes these dollars as part of the global CTRM market size. For 2016, we believe some $ 286 million was spent by customers of vendor-supplied CTRM solutions for the services of these consultants to provide assistance during the selection, implementation and integration of the newly acquired technologies. Though these revenues are down from 2015($ 308 million), we continue to see more customers of vendor supplied CTRM solutions engaging with third parties to assist in their acquisition and implementation projects, and we expect to see increased spend in this category over the next several years. Based on historical activity and an increasing reliance on 3rd party implementation resources, we believe the expenditures for these consultants to be, on average, at least 3 times the amount spent on vendor supplied consulting resources.
In total across all revenue components, our analysis indicates the total annual global market for CTRM products to be $ 1.48 billion in 2016. Further, based on market observations and year-to-date results provided by a few of the largest vendors, we anticipate 2017 full year market revenues be approximately $ 1.55 billion, slightly less than 5 % growth year over year.
MARKET OUTLOOK AND STUDY ASSUMPTIONS
The global CTRM market has been significantly impacted by the collapse in commodity prices over the last couple of years. While full-year CTRM market spending continued to show modest growth of slightly more than 2 % in 2014 despite the broad and deep declines in most commodity prices in the last half of the year, 2015 results indicated a reduction in spending, with the total global CTRM market declining almost 2 %. Though some improvement in commodity prices was seen in 2016, reduced spending by almost all market participants- but particularly by producers, traders and merchants in almost all markets- was clearly evident as any hopes for a quick commodity market recovery faded through-out 2015, leading to lower budgets and spending in 2016. As a result, total spending for CTRM solutions and services declined by more than 7 % versus 2015.
Despite only a modest improvement in commodity prices since January of 2016, first half results from 2017 indicate that commodity market participants have somewhat adjusted to market conditions and are again spending for IT solutions. Though we do not anticipate that the full year 2017 will grow beyond the levels of 2015, we do expect total CTRM spending in 2017 will show a solid increase over 2016, growing 7-8 % over the previous year.
Beyond 2017, the forecast is open to significant uncertainty. As we’ ve previously noted, the market for CTRM products and services is relatively small. Though there are more than 100
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