GLOBAL DIRECTION NOT ALL HEADWIND
Zooming out, global forces present a mixed bag – some destabilising, others laden with potential. Chief among them: trade tensions reignited by the United States, where proposed tariffs under a second Trump administration could see import duties surge from 2.5 per cent to a 1930s-esque 22 per cent. Markets have already reacted, with U. S. equities experiencing their sharpest downturn since early COVID-19.
China’ s promise of retaliatory tariffs compounds the uncertainty. Inflation pressures could rise globally, forcing central banks to be more cautious in their rate cuts. But in New Zealand, this volatility may create unexpected tailwinds.
The country’ s export profile – anchored by dairy, meat, timber and wine – remains in demand. And if global supply chains reroute, our relatively nimble position in the Asia- Pacific region may prove an advantage.
Another indirect consequence lies in construction. Residential building consents are falling – down 7.4 per cent year-on-year last quarter, with multi-unit consents retreating and standalone dwellings at decade-low levels for February. This foreshadows future supply shortages, particularly in areas of growth.
Fewer builds today mean less stock tomorrow – and in a market where net migration continues to rise, this imbalance could stoke future price pressure. In other words, global instability could trigger local scarcity. And smart money knows that scarcity creates value, especially when demand is quietly compounding.
WHAT’ S SMART MONEY ACTUALLY DOING?
Is smart money moving now? Not all of it – but enough to pay attention. Institutional investors are not waiting for perfect clarity, which rarely arrives. Instead, they are examining fundamentals, including easing inflation, stabilising policy settings, normalising credit markets, and declining construction pipelines – and quietly making calculated moves.
In the high-end residential space, cashed-up buyers are circling. In the first-home buyer bracket, competition is modest but rising. Investors, buoyed by the reintroduction of interest deductibility and eyeing yield potential amid rental shortages, are beginning to reposition.
The biggest signal, however, comes from the middle. Homeowners trading up, downsizing or relocating. These aren’ t speculators – they are value-conscious actors who see present-day conditions as a rare window. Prices have reset. Choice is abundant. Financing is stable. The trifecta won’ t last forever.
“ Prices have reset. Choice is abundant. Financing is stable. The trifecta won’ t last forever.”
The smartest capital, after all, doesn’ t wait for headlines. It reads between them.
RAY WHITE NOW NEW ZEALAND | 23