Sales volumes too, offer a nuanced picture. Seasonally adjusted figures for February posted a 0.6 per cent rise. While still subdued over a three-month horizon, January’ s figures were revised upwards by more than four per cent. Such revisions often tell a tale: real-time data may appear sluggish, but momentum is more robust than it first seems.
More revealing is the state of inventory. February saw a notable lift in new listings, especially in Auckland, where total stock levels are now the highest they’ ve been since 2011.
This glut of choice tempers prices but emboldens buyers, reintroducing a dynamic that has been missing in recent years: negotiating power, optionality and confidence.
Nationally, auction clearance rates have stabilised around 40 per cent, and time-to-sell metrics remain elevated at 47 days. Ray White continues to out-perform the national average, recording a 54 per cent clearance rate in March. These are typical hallmarks of a market in adjustment, not decline. They suggest that we are somewhere between inertia and lift-off. And that, historically, is where the sharpest strategic plays are made.
SENTIMENT SOFTENS FOR THE BETTER
Confidence doesn’ t turn abruptly. In recent months, we’ ve seen the tentative signs that the consumer psyche is thawing. March’ s consumer confidence index dipped slightly. Still in pessimistic territory, yes. However, part of a longer arc of recovery from the doldrums of 2023 and early 2024. Behind this lies a complicated picture: while economic uncertainty lingers, so too does an undercurrent of growing resolve.
Labour market anxiety remains a central concern. The unemployment rate has ticked up to 5.1 per cent and could potentially edge higher in the coming months.
Yet, the underlying trend tells a more balanced story. The number of monthly filled jobs is rising, business surveys point to improved hiring intentions, and employers in key sectors report stabilising turnover. It’ s not a jobs boom, but it’ s a foundation.
For housing, this matters. Employment security underpins mortgage serviceability, borrowing appetite, and long-term purchasing decisions. As households begin to believe their income is safe – or at least predictable – they start to lean back into the housing market.
Overlay this with a stabilised interest rate environment, and the picture sharpens. With the Official Cash Rate declining and expectations of a further rate reduction in May, mortgage holders are benefiting. Fixed-rate rollovers are less punishing than feared, and lenders are gradually loosening their lending criteria.
For those with pre-approved financing or cash on hand, the current lull in competition presents a rare opportunity.
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