Source: REINZ, SNZ, Ray White Group
None of this shows up in the market’ s activity, which remains solid. Around seven in ten new listings are finding a buyer, well above the low of early 2023 and among the healthiest rates since the boom. Supply is high, and buyers are working through it.
The question for the year ahead is how it holds without the support of cheap borrowing.
Little help is coming from elsewhere. Net migration has recovered off its lows but sits near 18,800 a year, well below the long-run average closer to 30,000, so population growth is not adding much demand. Unemployment has risen steadily for two years to 5.30 per cent, not high by past standards, but enough to keep buyers cautious and disciplined on price. The partial reopening to foreign buyers is too new and too narrow to have shifted the national picture yet.
While there’ s no housing boom on the horizon, the market isn’ t standing still, either. Headline prices may appear unchanged, and inflation is quietly reshaping value beneath the surface, but buyers continue to transact in healthy numbers.
Looking at only nominal house prices can risk missing this much bigger story.
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