Why sell now?
Daniel Coulson Chief Executive Ray White New Zealand
As we cross into the halfway mark of the year, the residential sales market is neither charging ahead nor retreating. Participants continue to cautiously navigate a complex landscape shaped by economic recalibration, evolving buyer sentiment, and shifting global dynamics, says Daniel Coulson, chief executive of Ray White New Zealand.“ For sellers contemplating their next moves, the question resonates louder than ever: Why sell now?”
READING THE SIGNALS
Understanding why the time to sell is ripe demands a closer look at the subtle yet telling market signals, Coulson says.
“ One of the most useful metrics is the sales-to-listings ratio, a reliable gauge of market‘ heat’ that often predicts house price trends six months in advance.
“ Across Ray White’ s network in June, the gap between these two numbers was as narrow as it’ s been all year, making a significant contraction from March’ s nearly 1,000-property difference.”
Coulson says the tightening gap signals a rebalancing act between supply and demand that’ s unfolding in real time.
THE INVISIBLE HAND
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’ s( RBNZ) sixth straight cut to the Official Cash Rate( OCR), now sitting at 3.25 per cent, sends a clear signal: it’ s time to get the economy moving again.
Coulson says that for the housing sector, it’ s a meaningful shift, softening mortgage costs and restoring a sense of financial breathing room. However, while policy is loosening, sentiment remains cautious.
“ Market performance rests on three things – immigration, interest rates, and economic momentum. At present, only one of those levers is doing any real work. Economic activity remains muted, and business sentiment is at odds with quarterly performance.
“ The disconnect between falling rates and careful behaviour isn’ t a market failure, it’ s a market in transition. For those willing to move ahead of the sentiment curve, it could be a valuable moment to act while others are awaiting confirmation.”
AFFORDABILITY IS MORE THAN NUMBERS
While the frenetic boom of 2021 is still fresh in many memories( when mortgage rates dipped below three per cent and house prices soared), the market today tells a different story.
Nationally, average house prices have softened 14 per cent from their late-2021 peak, which, when combined with reduced borrowing costs, translates to more manageable weekly mortgage repayments for borrowers.
Coulson says,“ Consider this: for a home priced at the national lower quartile of $ 580,000, weekly mortgage payments with a 10 per cent deposit have fallen to $ 738, their lowest since 2021.
Source: Reinz, realestate. co. nz, Macrobond, ANZ research
“ The broader market narrative is shifting away from the prolonged imbalance of previous months toward a steadier, more coordinated rhythm. Sellers are returning with confidence, buyers are stepping forward, and the level of hesitation is dissolving.”
“ This shifts the affordability needle significantly, especially for first-home buyers who have wrestled with deposit hurdles and rate anxiety.
“ For sellers, this is critical. A market offering increased affordability naturally attracts a broader, more active pool of buyers. In other words, properties that are wellpriced and well-presented can attract strong interest and competitive offers.”
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