104 A. Zabirova et al.: Radioprotection 2025, 60( 1), 99 – 108 Table 2. Independent factors associated with residents’ ITR to towns near the FDNPP.
Variable |
Unit |
Want to return |
Undecided |
Do not want to return |
|
|
OR( 95 % CI) |
OR( 95 % CI) |
OR( 95 % CI) |
Age |
≥ 65 /< 65 |
2.09( 1.18 – 3.70) * |
1.49( 0.92 – 2.42) |
1.22( 0.79 – 1.89) |
Sex |
Female / Male |
1.65( 0.92 – 2.95) |
1.56( 0.95 – 2.59) |
1.99( 1.26 – 3.15) ** |
Concerned about DTW |
Yes / No |
1.48( 1.05 – 2.09) * |
1.13( 0.84 – 1.52) |
1.15( 0.88 – 1.50) |
Willingness to acquire information about DTW |
Yes / No |
0.95( 0.69 – 1.30) |
0.94( 0.71 – 1.23) |
1.23( 0.96 – 1.57) |
Genetic effects will occur because |
Yes / No |
1.81( 0.83 – 3.93) |
1.63( 0.83 – 3.19) |
1.73( 0.93 – 3.20) |
of the FDNPS accident |
|
|
|
|
Reluctant to consume food from Tomioka / Okuma |
Yes / No |
2.36( 1.08 – 5.15) * |
3.17( 1.61 – 6.25) ** |
2.55( 1.37 – 4.75) ** |
SC, Social cohesion |
Yes / None |
0.21( 0.09 – 0.43) ** |
0.21( 0.11 – 0.41) ** |
0.28( 0.15 – 0.53) ** |
SC, Reciprocity |
Yes / None |
1.06( 0.30 – 3.76) |
1.92( 0.56 – 6.57) |
3.33( 1.08 – 10.3) * |
HR-QOL, MCS |
Low / High |
1.36( 0.77 – 2.41) |
1.18( 0.72 – 1.92) |
0.91( 0.59 – 1.42) |
Note. Multinomial logistic regression analysis, reference; already returned; OR, odds ratio; CI, confidence interval; ITR, intention to return; FDNPP, Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant; DTW, discharge of treated water; SC, social capital; SF-8, HR-QOL Short Form-8; MCS, Mental Component Summary; p < 0.05 *, p < 0.01 **.
already returned( returnee) as a reference( Tab. 2). Compared with returnees, those who wanted to return had a significantly higher concern about DTW( odds ratio [ OR ] = 1.48, 95 % confidence interval [ CI ]: 1.05 – 2.09). The sense of social cohesion was significantly lower among non-returnees: want to return( OR = 0.21, 95 % CI: 0.09 – 0.43, p < 0.01), undecided( OR = 0.21, 95 % CI: 0.11 – 0.41, p < 0.01), and do not want to return( OR = 0.28, 95 % CI: 0.15 – 0.53, p < 0.01), compared to returnees. The reciprocity of SC was independently higher among those who do not want to return( OR = 3.33, 95 % CI: 1.08 – 10.3, p < 0.05), compared to returnees. Compared to the returnees, the non-returnees had a greater reluctant to consume foods from Tomioka or Okuma. Among other groups, the rates were: want to return( OR = 2.36, 95 % CI: 1.08 – 5.15, p < 0.05), undecided about returning( OR = 3.17, 95 % CI: 1.61 – 6.25, p < 0.01), and do not want to return( OR = 2.55, 95 % CI: 1.37 – 4.75, p < 0.01).
Regarding respondents’ ages, those who want to return were significantly more likely to be aged ≥65( OR = 2.09, 95 % CI: 1.18 – 3.70, p < 0.05), compared to returnees. Female sex was independently associated with being among those who did not want to return( OR = 1.99, 95 % CI: 1.26 – 3.15, p < 0.01).
The willingness to acquire information about DTW, the belief that genetic effects will occur because of the FDNPS accident, and HR-QOL of MCS were not independently associated in the model.
4 Discussion
In this study, we investigated whether concerns about DTW, SC, HR-QOL, and radiation risk perceptions influenced the ITR of people who lived in the towns near FDNPS on Japan’ s Pacific coast.
The DTW into the ocean caused serious concerns and negative reactions, despite it being a crucial step for accelerating the reconstruction efforts following the nuclear accident. It is important to note that the first ocean discharge was between August 24 and September 11,
2023( The Inter-Ministerial Council for Contaminated Water, Treated Water and Decommissioning issues, 2021), about six months before this survey was conducted. This timing could potentially have influenced the responses and perceptions captured in the survey. The event attracted considerable attention, both inside and outside of Japan( Huaxia, 2022). Among respondents, more than half were concerned, and about 70 %, wanted to obtain more information about DTW. It is also worth noting that those who were undecided about ITR were the most concerned about DTW, although they were highly willing to acquire information about DTW, compared to other groups. Those who had already returned were less concerned about DTW, compared to other ITR groups. The multinomial logistic regression analysis showed that residents concerned about DTWweremorelikelytobelongtothewanttoreturn group. No significant independent relationships were found for residents who were undecided or who did not want to return. The monitoring of seawater treated by the ALPS system, conducted by independent international organizations prior to the commencement of TEPCO’ s discharge, demonstrated the reliability and safety of the chosen method based on scientific evidence( IAEA, 2023). Following the discharge in November 2023, monitoring results confirmed the absence of tritium and gammaemitting nuclides at 14 sampling points of seawater. Analyses of fish from the Fukushima coastline also detected no radioactive substances, or showed levels below detection limits. These findings indicate that the marine environment remains safe after the discharge of seawater treated by the ALPS system( Fukushima Prefectural Government, 2023). It is important to track public awareness of the conducted monitoring, as it can influence the level of concern among residents.
Returnees and those who want to return seem to prefer small group or individual consultations, while those who were undecided or did not want to return tended to prefer lecturetype group meetings. Differences in communication preferences may be due to the different information needs and levels