Quarry Southern Africa March 2017 | Page 42

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In compiling the report, McKinsey analysed the impact of automation across 54 countries covering 78 % of the global labour market to assess time spent on activities that could potentially be automated through the use of current technology.

The report aimed to investigate the potential of automation technologies when it comes to the future of work. The results are enlightening. First off, the results suggest that rather than focusing on the automation of occupations, there is— or should be— a focus on the automation of activities. McKinsey’ s research suggests that as much as 45 % of activities that people are paid to perform can be automated by adapting currently available technologies.

While very few occupations will be entirely automated in the medium term, there are a number of activities across all levels of occupation, from low-skill, low-wage roles to high-paid executive level jobs, that are likely to be automated, which would require entire processes and jobs to be transformed and redefined.

Globally, approximately 1.2 billion employees and USD14.6-trillion in wages were identified as involving technically automatable activities. Three

categories of work activities were identified as having significantly higher technical automation potential than the rest: collecting data, processing data, and predictable physical activities, that is, the performance of physical activities and the operating of machinery in predictable environments.

While all three categories relate to areas of the mining and construction sectors, it is this last category that is most likely to be affected. In fact, a number of automation solutions are already in use at various quarries across the globe, including autonomous and semi-autonomous mining trucks, as well as drones, which are used in quarry management for everything from planning to operations and stockpile measurement.

The countries examined were divided into three groups depending on their demographic and growth aspirations: advanced economies, emerging economies with ageing populations, and emerging economies with younger populations. South Africa falls into the third group. While the report points out that the continued growth of the working-age population in this group of countries could support maintaining current GDP per capita, high growth aspirations make automation and additional productivity-raising measures a necessity if countries in this group wish to sustain their economic development. Data referenced in the report indicates that South Africa is estimated to have an automation potential of 41 % overall, including 50 % in the construction industry and 43 % in the mining industry.

INSIGHT

According to McKinsey, as automation drives down the cost of manufacturing globally, low-cost labour may become less essential as a developmental tool for emerging economies:“ The advances in automation and their potential impact on national economies could upend some prevailing models of development and challenge ideas about globalisation … countries with high birth rates and a significant growth in the working-age population may have to worry more about generating new jobs in a new age of automation.” n

McKinsey Global Institute

This report from McKinsey Global Institute analyses how a wide range of technologies could potentially automate work activities for which people are currently paid in the global workforce, and the potential impact on global productivity.

40 _ QUARRY SA | March 2017