Policy Brief_Uzbekistan Towards 2030: A New Social Protection Model f bunxjnse pwvc en 9 | Page 9

Uzbekistan Towards 2030: A New Social Protection Model for a Changing Economy and Society
2) Revise the content and structure of education in line with eco-
nomic and social changes. Structural reforms and corresponding growth
of the share of manufacturing industries producing goods with a higher level
of technological sophistication will increase demand for qualified personnel,
which will require changes in the structure of education. Based on the ex-
perience of economies that have managed to become upper middle-income
countries within a short period of time, to get the share of manufacturing to
20%, the number of graduates in engineering, technical and natural sciences
has to increase from 12,200 to 61,600 by 2030. The number of economics,
law and business graduates would need to increase from 6,300 to 50,700,
while the number of pedagogical graduates should decline from 28,200
people to 16,000 over the same period. This means that the total number
of graduates from higher education should increase from 60,900 to 160,000
by 2030. This will require higher education enrollment to increase to 25%.
Accordingly, the number of vocational college graduates should gradually
decline from 518,000 to 462,000, with a parallel increase in the number of
lyceum graduates from 36,400 to 163,000.
Along with the changes in the educational structure, in order to create oppor-
tunities for the expected future growth in formal employment, greater attention
has to be paid to the quality of education at all levels. In this context, creating
effective incentives for teachers is an important factor. Taking into account pro-
jected growth in wages throughout the economy (average wage at 2,060,000
soum in current prices), to ensure competitive compensation of teachers by
2030 it will be necessary to increase expenditure per pupil, both in general sec-
ondary education, and in secondary-special and higher education. In particular,
expenditure in general secondary education has to increase by a factor of 3.4, in
secondary-special education 4.9-fold, and in higher education 3.6-fold.
The size of social
allowances has to be
increased to a level that
would allow the recipients
to retrain, look for jobs
and break out from the
low-income category
The change in demand and expenditure in education will eventually impose
the need to reform the system of financing education. In particular, as incomes
grow, it should be feasible to reduce the proportion of public financing. In the
secondary-special education sector, for example, the number of students who
are educated at the expense of employers should increase to 48% by 2030. In
higher education, the share of students studying on a contract basis should
rise from 65% to 78%.
3) Develop the system of social allowances in order to contribute to
the transformation of values and behavior, thus enabling the vulnerable
to achieve sustainable livelihoods and graduate to higher social strata.
The vector of social assistance has to be changed to help vulnerable groups
to break out from poverty and transform their mindsets, values and lifestyles.
Sociological survey “Transformative social
protection in a transforming economy and society”,
CER, 2013
4
The sociological survey reveals that the size of allowances needs to be
expanded to increase the incomes of recipients to a level that would allow
them to retrain, find better jobs and break out from the low-income category.
The ratio of allowances to average wages is 25%, whereas, based on inter-
national experience, an optimal ratio is 33%. An anticipated decrease in the
poverty rate and a reduction in the number of families in need of allowances
9
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© Сenter for Economic Research, 2014 (www.cer.uz)
© UNDP, 2014 (www.undp.org)
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