Policy Brief_Uzbekistan Towards 2030: A New Social Protection Model f bunxjnse pwvc en 9 | Page 10

Uzbekistan Towards 2030: A New Social Protection Model for a Changing Economy and Society
Figure 9. To increase the share of the manufacturing industry
in the economy to 20% by 2030, the number of engineering
and technical graduates has to be increased to 61,600 by 2030
Figure 10. By 2030, the burden on the Pension Fund will
increase: the number of pensioners will expand 2.5 times
from 977,000 families in 2012 to 709,000 in 2030 will free fiscal resources to
increase the size of allowances five-fold, which would improve social mobil-
ity. Given the growth of government revenues due to the expansion of formal
employment, even with a five-fold increase in social allowances, the share of
allowances in the government budget would decline from 5.7% to 4.9%.
The decrease in the number of welfare recipients will create additional
opportunities to expand the coverage of social programs to increase their
transformative effect. Such programs might include non-monetary social
aid programs for pupils (providing sportswear for girls, providing textbooks,
school supplies and winter clothing for pupils). According to survey results,
such programs stimulate the involvement of girls in sports, contribute to the
transformation of gender stereotypes, and improve the role and importance
of education in low-income families. By 2030, taking into account the reduced
demand for social allowances, the share of non-monetary social aid programs
could be increased from 2% of the government budget to 2.8%.
4) Create conditions to meet the social rights of pensioners by
increasing pensions and involving those that are willing to work in
active employment.
To satisfy the social rights
of pensioners, the average
pension needs to be
increased by 4-5 times
In future, the main task of the pension system will be to create the condi-
tions to meet the social rights of pensioners. In this regard, in order to make
people feel protected in retirement, the minimum and average old-age and
disability pensions should be increased by 4-5 times (in current prices). The
major challenge of this task is that by 2030, according to analysis of demo-
graphic trends, the number of people of retirement age will have increased
considerably, by around 2.5-fold. However, implementing the recommended
increase in pensions while maintaining the sustainability of the Pension Fund
should be possible due to projected growth in Pension Fund revenues. This
should result from a near-doubling in formal employment and a more than
5-fold increase in the average wage by 2030 in comparison with 2012.
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