Policy Brief_Uzbekistan Towards 2030: A New Social Protection Model f bunxjnse pwvc en 9 | Page 5

Uzbekistan Towards 2030: A New Social Protection Model for a Changing Economy and Society
Figure 5. Uzbekistan 2030: Structural transformation will change the demand for social protection.
By 2030 , the share of manufacturing
and services in the economy is expected to soar
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
45,1
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
55
19,5
8
15
26,4
22
9
2012
2030
Extractive
Manufacturing
Services
Agriculture
79,0%
68,5%
66,0%
39,6%
2012
2030
1200
500 1000
400 800
300 600
200 400
100 200
0
0
Employed (% of employable population)
Formally employed, %
Average wage (2012=100%)
27
9
21,5
13
2012
2030
Agriculture
Services
18
16,0%
16
14
12
8,0%
10
8
977
709
6
4
2
2012
2030
0
Recipients of social allowances, thou families
Poverty rate, %
The expected proficit of Pension Fund
will allow cutting PF contributions from 30 . 8% to 17 . 0%
35
Revenues
30
100000
25
80000
Expenditures
60000
20
15
40000
30,8%
10
20000
0
69,5
Growth of personal income and poverty reduction
is expected to reduce the demand for social allowances
from 977 to 709 thousand families
600
Growth of formal employment will increase Pension Fund
revenues thus ensuring its proficit
120000
60
Manufacturing
The share of formal employment will nearly double ,
average wage is expected to increase more than fivefold by 2030
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
As a result of structural transformations,
employment in manufacturing
and services is expected to increase
17,0%
5
2012
2030
0
2012
2030
vided through expansion of the enrollment in pre-primary education from 23%
to 60% in 2030, expansion of special programs of de-monetized assistance for
children (winter clothing etc.) from 2% of government budget to 2,8%, focusing
on providing better healthcare services for children etc. More focus will also be
put on providing local support services to households at risk.
However in this case, a different need will arise — it will be important to
help people find employment, to earn decent incomes, to remain involved in
economic activities and to maintain their social rights. The system of social
protection will need to contribute to creating such opportunities through tak-
ing on more of a “promoting” and “transformative” role. In fact, social protec-
tion should in the future become more active in “promoting” and “transform-
5
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© UNDP, 2014 (www.undp.org)
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