Policy Brief_Uzbekistan Towards 2030: A New Social Protection Model f bunxjnse pwvc en 9 | Page 4

Uzbekistan Towards 2030: A New Social Protection Model for a Changing Economy and Society
Third, it is essential to shift towards producing more sophisticated servic-
es. This will allow the share of services in the country’s GDP to increase from
42.5% in 2010 to 55% in 2030, contributing to the expansion of productive em-
ployment and improving the quality of human capital.
Along with the transformation of the economy, society will also change in
line with the chosen development path and long-term development objec-
tives. It is expected that the share of the middle class will grow to reach 60%
of the population by 2030, and that there will be a reduction in the existing gap
in living standards and opportunities between urban and rural populations.
These transformations will in turn affect social values and behavior, encourag-
ing more striving for individual self-fulfillment and more demands regarding
gender equality. Transformation of behavioral stereotypes could also mean
that families and households become smaller, which in turn may lead to the
reduction of informal protection networks – through extended families etc.
and may put more pressure on the protective role of the formal social protec-
tion system.
Social Protection in the New Stage:
Not Just Protecting, but Promoting and Transforming
In order to define the roles and objectives of social protection in this new
stage of development, it is important to consider how the anticipated transfor-
mative processes will affect individuals. Implementation of structural reforms,
and the corresponding growth of services from 45.1% to 55% of GDP and of
manufacturing from 9% to 22%, should lead to an expansion of employment
opportunities. In fact, total employment should increase from 12.2 million (66%
of the labor force) in 2012 to 17.5 million (76% of the labor force) by 2030.
Accelerated
transformative processes
will impose a need
to take a new look at
the future of social
protection
Estimations of the Center for Economic
Research.
1
Changes are also expected in the structure of employment. It is estimated
that the share of employment will increase from 60% to 69.5% in services, and
from 13% to 21.5% in manufacturing, while in agriculture it will decrease from
27% to 9%. Moreover, formal employment should expand from 39.6% to 68.5%
of the total. As a result, personal income should also increase considerably:
the average wage throughout all sectors is expected to increase to more than
515% of the current level (i.e. by more than 5 times in real terms) . Such sig-
nificant growth in employment will provide greater earning potential, resulting
in a decline in poverty rate from 15% to 8% by 2030 (definition of poverty is
based on the consumer basket to ensure a 2100 calorie intake per person a
day). Overall, living standards should improve considerably.
As a result, the number of people in need of protection from poverty through
receipt of social assistance benefits should drop substantially. The number of
recipients of low income allowances is expected to decrease from 76,300 in 2012
to 55,370 in 2030. For low-income families with children the demand should
also decrease from 900,700 in 2012 to 653,000 in 2030 due to the growth of
their family incomes. At the same time more protection for children will be pro-
4
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The publication reflects opinions and views of the working group, which may not coincide with
the official point of view of the Center for Economic Research or UNDP.
© Сenter for Economic Research, 2014 (www.cer.uz)
© UNDP, 2014 (www.undp.org)
UNDP Country Office in Uzbekistan
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Tashkent 100015, Uzbekistan
Tel: [phone];
Fax: [phone]
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