PKSOI/GLOBAL TRENDS CASE STUDIES After the Fall of North Korea | Page 5

Case Study # 0617-03
PKSOI TRENDS GLOBAL CASE STUDY SERIES
18. The only camp currently existing is a UN one for some 500,000 refugees in South Korea.
19. UN organizations and NGOs are awaiting access to help with the IDP/refugee crisis, but there are no North Ko-
rean NGOs, only South Korean and international ones, and those are mostly focused on helping on immediate needs
in South Korea.
20. North Korean landmines and UXO pepper the landscape, especially across the DMZ. Germany has volunteered
UXO remediation training.
21. Much of North Korea’s road network, bridges, sea ports, railway tracks, and military airfields were bombed during
the fighting. Pyongyang’s civilian airport is barely functioning, as is Seoul’s, as infrastructure on both sides was heavily
damaged. In the immediate aftermath helicopters provide the only readily available form of transport for personnel and
humanitarian assistance, which obviously isn’t enough, although the U.S. Corps of Engineers and elements of the Red
Horse Squadron are en-route to the Pyongyang airport.
The Exercise:
There are three steps to this exercise. The following questions serve to illuminate the scope of activities that any inter-
vention will need to consider and prioritize. First, you the participants must grapple with these questions, either in two
or four groups, dividing up the four lines of effort plus the general questions for all. Then you may have the opportu-
nity to role-play a USG Principals Committee meeting in Washington which takes place on “Day One” of the peace: a
North Korean general surrendered his forces yesterday; today the principals meet in Washington; and tomorrow (“Day
Two”) the UN Transitional Authority takes up residence in Pyongyang. [NOTE: the Principals Committee is made up
of the heads of USG Departments and agencies needed to resolve a given issue. It is essentially a Cabinet meeting, mi-
nus the President and Vice President.] The PC meeting’s task is to advise the President on what the desired end state for
the Korean Peninsula should be, and, based on that, make a recommendation to him on the level of the USG’s near- and
longer-term commitment, and then provide immediate guidance to the U.S. representatives meeting with counterparts
in Pyongyang the following day. The third step, if there is time, is to role-play the initial meeting of the UN Transitional
Authority with representatives of South and North Korea, the United States, Russia, China, Australia, India, Japan, the
UK, Germany, and France, as well as perhaps NGOs and IGOs (depending on how many participants there are), on
their first day in Pyongyang. The primary goal in all three steps is to prioritize tasks and figure out who can fulfil them.
It is important to remember that the U.S. and other international stakeholders will follow South Korea’s lead.
General Questions:
■ What does the incoming UN Transitional Authority need to know about stabilization theory and practice? (See
the attached PowerPoint charts for guidance.)
■ Where does it start the process – what are the key needs and priorities? Rack and stack.
■ How do you reconcile the different agendas of North Korea, South Korea, the United States, China, Russia, Japan,
and the UN? As a U.S. official, what is your policy, or your Department’s policy and goals? What are your redlines?
Similarly, as a North Korean, Chinese, or Russian representative, what are your objectives and red lines?
■ Who is likely to be competing for power? Which actors might seek to fill the power vacuums?
■ Based on your expertise (and, if engaged in the international role-play, your assumed nationality), what can you
bring to the table?
■ What capabilities are needed, who has them and can carry out the needed tasks, and what are the gaps? What capa-
bilities might your country refuse to bring to the table?
■ How can national aid agencies, IGOs and NGOs be brought in early to help with strategy development as well as
immediate humanitarian relief ? How can they be merged with international military aid and reconstruction efforts.