Key Points:
African countries to export goods and resources to other coun-
tries outside of the continent to reduce competition between
neighbors. Since exporting outside of Africa is the norm, illegal
markets entrenched in refugee flows thus cut revenue streams to
the country. As revenue streams decrease, corruption and graft
increases, and technology greatly enhances the speed of these
transactions.
• Future European conflict will probably not be conventional,
but some form of gray zone competition and conflict short of
armed conflict, thus NATO needs to be prepared to compete in
this space. The success of democracies is not inevitable, they can
fail, thus rapid responses to aggression or instability are essen-
tial. Georgia and Ukraine are two such examples of countries
that needed rapid intervention assistance in an attempt to deter
Russian aggression. In 2008, NATO’s Bucharest Summit reject-
ed Georgia’s and Ukraine’s application for a membership action
plan. Russia’s invasion of Georgia followed four months later.
The U.S responded with ineffectual sanctions following Russia’s
incursion into Georgia and created a green light for the annex-
ation of Crimea. When Russia infiltrated the Donbas region,
the U.S. finally enacted serious sanctions. The shooting down
of an MH17 caused outrage in European countries, especially
the Netherlands, and spurred Europeans to impose additional
sanctions. The U.S. and NATO also deployed military forces
and sold Air Defense assets to the Baltic States as a deterrent to
Russian troop movements near the Baltic State borders. The
U.S. provided javelin anti-tank weapons to Ukraine and con-
tinued to rotate Georgia National Guard units into Georgia to
make it a less viable target for Russia. NATO has nearly tripled
support to the Baltics and Poland. Political soft power and
political military assets need to be part of a deterrent nation-
al strategy, inclusive of complementary military training and
capacity building efforts.
• The Allied Joint Force Command ( JFC) in Naples is focused
on advise and assist missions to identify root causes of instabil-
ity and strengthen partnerships as a component of Projecting
Stability. NATO understands the importance of working
bilaterally and multilaterally with the African Union (AU) as
an important partner to develop a mutual dialogue and develop
interoperability for future efforts to curb illicit activity. The AU
is a valuable partner in combatting illicit trafficking and ter-
rorism, which has a direct spillover effect on Europe. Through
NATO’s new initiative, the NATO Strategic Direction South
Hub, personnel directly engages NGOs, IOs, academia and
civil society to gain local perspectives and perceptions in order
to develop a true all-encompassing understanding of its feasible
rolls and missions for incorporation into comprehensive solu-
tions. The population needs to view NATO as accessible, while
NATO understands that the population is an integral part of
the solution. That being said, it is essential to understand which
members of the community are being engaged to ensure NATO
is not sending the wrong message to that group.
Eastern Europe Panel
• The United Nations should authorize a peacekeeping force
to secure the Donbas region until it returns to full Ukrainian
control. The mandate should establish a peacekeeping force as
robust as the IFOR mission, and include an interim interna-
tional governing body for Donbas until Ukraine can reclaim
sovereignty over its territory and borders. NATO forces with a
U.S. contingent would not be an acceptable solution for Russia.
Potentially, a Swedish or Finnish neutral force would be accept-
able. President Putin appears to be looking for a way to pull
Russian assets out of the region due to the extreme economic
strain. In order for the mandate to be accepted, others must
allow President Putin to save face. A potential incentive for
Russia might be for the UN to pay for troop movements out of
the Donbas region, as was the case with East Germany.
Moderator: COL Darrell Driver, Director of European
Studies at the United States Army War College
Panel Members: Ambassador William Taylor, Executive VP,
US Institute of Peace; GEN Riccardo Marchiò, Commander,
Allied Joint Forces Command Brunssum; LTG(R) Ben Hodges,
former Commander, US Army Europe
6
• Georgia and Ukraine enacted multiple improvements to their
military forces and governance structure to enhance their port-
folio for entrance into NATO. Georgia enacted an acceptable
defense concept, and met many of the NATO requirements,
but in both countries’ cases, there is hesitancy to bring them
into NATO, which would increase tensions with Russia. The