Pay Me Now or Pay Me Later PKSOI Papers | Page 29

Conclusion When the United Nations was slow to act in Somalia and the Congo, critics were appalled that its member states could allow the civil conflicts to continue without taking concerted action. Although individual cases might vary, we explored whether sending a peacekeeping force versus letting the fighting continue is a superior strategy in general. We use the normative standard provided by utilitarianism, namely judging the relative benefits of each strategy weighed against the harms, focusing on four main goals of the international community in addressing ongoing wars. The results of our analysis reveal something of a mixed bag in terms of the merits of each approach: • During an ongoing conflict, obtaining a ceasefire and deploying a peace operation makes diplomatic efforts less likely to occur and less successful when they do occur. • Once an end to the fighting is reached, the relative advantage of each approach varies by time and the identity of the victor in an unconstrained war. Peacekeeping is clearly superior to government victories in civil wars with respect to preventing or delaying the renewal of violent conflict. Rebel victories poses the greatest risk to the return of war in the short-run, but are actually more stable, superior to peacekeeping and government victories, in the long run. • Peacekeeping can reduce both battlefield and civilian deaths, but only if troop size is large enough; the average operation size, however, is sub-optimal on average and therefore the conflict management is less than could be achieved. Letting the fighting continue results 22