Pay Me Now or Pay Me Later PKSOI Papers | Page 26

points lower than a similar country that receives no peacekeeping and this holds for two decades. Wars that end in decisive victories fair no better, on average. Although rebel victories are slightly more democratic, the difference between these values is neither substantively or statistically significant. What is the best means to ensure political reform in a country recovering from war—is it through peacekeepers or by waiting for a decisive military outcome? Scholarly analyses suggest that neither has a significant effect on democratization. Yet political reform is much more involved than policing a ceasefire line, registering voters, or defeating an enemy. A temporary presence by a foreign organization should not be expected to sustain a long-lasting democratic transition. Additionally, the locals who participate in the politics of post-war societies may not be too concerned about the democratic process, but just with the political outcomes.53 Other Consequences Our juxtaposition of peacekeeping versus nonintervention was analyzed above on four key dimensions. Yet there are other consequences that flow from these choices. A full consideration of these additional consequences is beyond the scope of this piece. The exact effects allowing fighting to continue will vary tremendously according to how intense and how long the fighting is prior to a cease-fire of, as well as a series of contextual factors. Nevertheless, in making an assessment of the relative utility of the two options, these other consequences need to be part of the calculation. 19