Pay Me Now or Pay Me Later PKSOI Papers | Page 15

and successful mediation and negotiation, at least relative to not deploying such an operation. Available data do not permit a direct comparison with letting the parties fight on, an option that is embedded within the broad category of “no peacekeeping.”17 Keeping the Peace: Stability and Peace Duration Whether peacekeeping or other processes produce a halt in fighting, wars eventually do end, but there remains the concern of preventing a renewal of that violent conflict. Thus, there has been substantial attention to “peace duration,” or the time lapse until fighting is renewed as a barometer used to assess the success or “stability” of a given option.18 Clearly, peace operations likely supervise different post-conflict scenarios than ones occasioned by their absence. The former usually derive from peace agreements agreed to by the participants. Post-conflict situations in which one side was victorious or was able to compel its enemy into stopping the fighting might result in a peace agreement, but this is not necessarily the case; the conditions might be imposed by the dominant side. Nevertheless, how long peace lasts can be compared across these different outcomes. Most studies of peacekeeping operations find that they are effective at reducing conflict and preventing future violence. Countries that receive peacekeepers, on average, are more likely to remain stable compared to those without such operations. Peacekeeping’s positive effect on stability relies on the ability of such operations to convey information between belligerents, reduce the chance of accidental skirmishes, and provide detection and accountability for any violations of the cease-fire. Compared to civil wars that experience no 8