Beware the lure of short-term gains
Long-term vision of an improved end-state should guide all actions , both strategic and tactical . The litmus test for any operation or programmatic implementation must be whether it contributes towards the achievement of that long-term vision , or whether it could distract from or undermine it . For example , while security is of course a priority , some of the methods and tools necessary to produce the condition rapidly may involve heavy-handed or repressive tactics that also tend to exacerbate the problem in the long run . A lack of deep analysis in pre-operational planning can be catastrophic , but just as dangerous is analysis and operations predicated upon the timelines and priorities of interveners , dissonant or disassociated from those of the local population .
In Yemen , there is mounting anecdotal and quantitative evidence that lethal drone strikes contribute to increased radicalization . 78 In Kenya , the collective profiling of Muslims , extrajudicial killings and widespread violence by the police forces have been linked to an increase in attacks and threat from the Somali militant group al Shabaab . 79 In fragile areas which lack effective police services , local self-defense forces ( such as arose in Sierra Leone and Liberia in the 1990s ) have often been fostered in order to fill the security gap . These self-defense forces have often become selfinterested vigilantes , challenging the legitimacy of the state as well as state ’ s ability to provide security . 80 In Afghanistan , the effort to make short-term gains in local security led International Security Assistance Force ( ISAF ) coalition members to undertake approaches which exacerbated growing rifts between the delib-
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