english issue towards drastic saving measures to safeguard their balance . It is the case of Algeria , Nigeria , and Venezuela to name but a few . For its part , Russia , which is the largest producer and has the largest gas reserves in the world , has suffered an unprecedented crisis that sent its currency tumbling down to its lowest rate ever recorded . Iran is emerging from a ten-year period of sanctions after a nuclear deal was concluded and has also felt the pinch as a result of this situation . This country is now struggling to secure revenues to improve its economy . So , we should look for the reasons behind the drop in prices . Of course , when supply is higher than demand prices take a downward turn . But aren ’ t there other more geostrategic reasons ? Is this a response to the Ukrainian crisis , which followed the successful referendum on the annexation of Crimea to Russia ? Is this a response to attempts to dethrone the US dollar as the sole means of payment in oil and gas trading ? Is this a consequence of antagonisms between Saudi Arabia and Iran , on the backdrop of Sunni- Shiite confrontations ( Syria conflict , Yemen conflict , Bahrain situation )? Let ’ s go back to the April 17th meeting , which seems in the first analysis headed for failure because of subsisting contradictions . However , the drastic fall in oil prices led to a steep reduction in investment in the oil and gas industry , which could lead to a counter-shock in two or three years ’ time , and could be even more devastating . After the Doha meeting in February 2016 , many reservations and conditions - especially adherence of all producing countries to the agreement - relegated the text to a formality . Nevertheless , investors , who have been worried about tumbling prices since 2014 , fearing with good reason the return of the spectre of deflation and negative rates , were just content with the announcement . The “ market ” recovered slightly and stabilized at around USD 40 a barrel . A few days ago , Kuwait did not rule out the possibility of an agreement in Doha in April , even without the support of Iran . Furthermore , the ceasefire in Syria , following a US-Russian agreement , has been holding for a month and a half now , and direct negotiations between government supporters and opposition members are getting closer . Offensives against IS are more and more aggressive both in Syria and Iraq . A cease fire has been signed in Yemen , and seems to be holding so seriously that negotiations are expected in the coming days in Kuwait .
For some time now , the US has increased its imports of Russian oil . The crisis in Ukraine is no longer on the front pages and seems to be moving towards a sort of acceptable status quo . When all these data are put together , we can fairly expect that the Doha meeting in April will end up with an agreement in principle for at least a stabilization of output at February 2016 levels , pending a potential decision to cut production in the nearby future . Without being overly optimistic , we can expect prices to stabilize around USD 50 , or may be USD 60 a barrel ( with a little bit more optimism ) by late 2016 or early 2017 , after a decline in stocks , which are very high today . Before concluding , we should ask a question on the gas market , whose prices decreased in the same way as they are linked to those of oil . This might not bring major gas producers to look for another definition of prices for an energy ( which is also a raw material ) that remains among the most sought form of carbon energy .
Keystone pipe restart delayed
TransCanada Corp has delayed the restart of its 590 000 bpd Keystone crude pipeline until Tuesday 12 April at the earliest , moving it further away from an original date since Friday 8 April . The Keystone crude pipeline was closed at the weekend amidst leak suspicions . A TransCanada spokesman confirmed in an email that the company had informed customers that next Tuesday remained the best-case scenario for a restart . « Quick fix is not how we would characterise this , at all ,» TransCanada spokesman Mark Cooper said . TransCanada also said it was going to ask the Pipeline Hazardous Materials Safety Administration ( PHMSA ) to repressurise the line in order to find the leak . TransCanada will curtail shipments on the pipeline by 35 % for the remainder of the month .
Sources : The Globe and Mail
OIL & GAS business / NUMÉRO 14 / Avril 2016 / 55