english issue
WHAT CAN WE EXPECT OF THE DOHA MEETING ?
By Nazim Zouioueche
Today , everyone is awaiting the next meeting in Doha scheduled to take place on April 17th . However , less than a week ahead of this meeting , many contradictions arise . On the one hand , about two months after the initial Doha meeting attended by Russia , Venezuela , Saudi Arabia , and Qatar , several OPEC members and non-OPEC producers voted for an oil output freeze at February 2016 levels to curb supply on the market , a move designed to drive prices up ( Saudi Arabia made its assent contingent on adherence of all participants ). On the other hand , Iran , which is a major OPEC member , said it would only accept such agreement if its production rose from its current level of 3.1 million barrels per day ( m b / d ) to 4 m b / d ( which would increase its exports to 2 m b / d ). Let ’ s go back to the origin of this crisis , which began in June 2014 : at the beginning , there was slow price erosion , and thereafter prices decreased at a rapid pace to reach a low of USD 27 a barrel in January 2016 ( as a reminder , in June 2014 the price of a barrel stood at around USD 100 ). The main reason put forward by most analysts is a break in the balance of fundamentals , in other words , supply was higher than demand , which was undermined by a fragile global economy . Major producers , such as Saudi Arabia , gave precedence to their market share at the expense of the sale price , which ebbing more and more . The vindication most often cited is the surge on the market of increasingly high shale oil supplies from the USA . Beyond purely economic reasons , such as fundamentals imbalance , other more upstream motives had triggered this situation of plummeting oil prices . Several producing countries , whose economies largely rely on oil and gas income , are suffering from this situation , which is pushing them
54 / OIL & GAS business / NUMÉRO 14 / Avril 2016