english issue
OGB : Apparently , ACSRT is well documented on events taking place in Libya . There were worries that Daesh might cross borders and make incursions into neighbouring countries . Now the fears have materialized with this bold attack in the southern Tunisian town of Benguerdane . Is it a test of Tunisian defence capabilities ? Or a provocation ? Were you surprised ? Mr . Idriss LAALALI : Surprised ? No . We had the opportunity to review the Sahel region before the crisis of 2010 and we were in a pretty good position to provide reference insight on what was going on with respect to events taking place . A team , in which I was a member , assessed the impact of the Libyan turmoil on the Sahel and developed recommendations which were submitted to the United Nations . An important chapter on terrorism was covered by ACSRT . We identified and analyzed in detail all the issues facing the states that suffered from the reverberations of the Libyan crisis , including Algeria , Tunisia , Niger , Chad , Mali , Burkina Faso , and Mauritania . Therefore , I do say that what is happening now was no surprise for us . Regarding the onslaught against the Tunisian town of Benguerdane , undoubtedly , there is a set of goals behind it . If Daesh intended to establish an emirate as has been said , we believe it is a suicidal goal because Tunisia has the ability to recover its lands . No doubt this attack is a test and is intended to discredit the security measures that Tunisia has recently implemented to prevent attacks . The aim was to show that the defence system of digging trenches was not appropriate , that it was not a deterrent , and that Daesh was able to carry out attacks within Tunisia . The strong message that these groups are trying to send to the international community is to showcase their capacity to cause damage . It highlights their connections with some trafficking groups whose interests collapsed following the strengthening of border security .
Why is Libya chosen as redeployment ground for Daesh ? Is it for its petroleum resources , or its strategic location between the Sahel and the North ? Is it a springboard ? What is happening in Libya is affecting the entire sub-region , including Algeria , Tunisia , Egypt , Chad , and Mali . Besides , there is a pledge of allegiance of groups like Boko Haram or AQIM . This situation also carries a medium-term threat to the Mediterranean through the networks of migrants heading north and the influx of terrorist recruits to Libya , which was previously a starting platform for “ jihadiststerrorists ” going to Iraq and Syria . The risk today is the return to Libya of these mercenaries in the absence of an institutional framework and of a sovereign state .
Is Algeria on the firing line ? Yes , there is a risk in all cases , since there are armed groups , which do not obey a central authority . It should be mentioned that the attack against the Tiguentourine gas field in south eastern Algeria was carried out by an international force made up of 99 % of foreign mercenaries . Their defeat is a lesson they have learned and I do not believe that Algeria will be targeted again in this way . At present , Daesh is consolidating its positions in Libya with a stronger influence on the population . For the time being , they are not expected to venture in Algeria or Egypt . It would really be suicidal . However , vigilance is required .
How is the European Union assessing the current risk with five thousand Daesh fighters in Libya ? Is it aware of the full extent of the danger ? The way the EU is handling the migrant issue shows more disarray than control . I believe that the EU did not consider the post-Kaddafi situation and its consequences . It does not seem to measure the impact of the country ’ s destabilization on its economy or the likelihood of a humanitarian crisis that it will have to manage .
OGB : Do you have an idea on the Daesh roadmap in Libya and its neighbouring countries ? The organization itself has taken everyone by surprise . In spite of all international efforts in the fight against Al-Qaida , now we find ourselves facing a new terrorist organization , Daesh , which has managed to control a territory and to attract thousands of mercenaries to build a utopian state . Daesh demonstrated that the roots of terrorism in populations is neither poverty nor bad governance , since mercenaries from Western Europe did not suffer from poverty or human rights abuse . The choice of Libya seems to obey strategic factors , such as geographical location and petroleum resources , taking advantage of the collapse of institutions and the Libyan state . This territory has the same configuration as Syria and Iraq . The only difference , though , is the absence of the religious factor of sunni-shi ’ a opposition . Nevertheless , Daesh has shown that it intends to fully take advantage of ethnic and tribal differences with the Tuareg or
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OIL & GAS business / NUMÉRO 13 / Mars 2016 / 59