Teo Nicholais, Harvard lecturer and real estate advisor, compares the housing market as a game of“ musical chairs.” When there are too few units, competition drives prices higher; the only real solution, he argued, is to add more chairs.“ Every new unit helps ease pressure, whether it’ s luxury or workforce housing,” he said.“ That filtering process is what allows households at different income levels to find affordable options.”
Teo also focused on the critical role of investment capital in determining whether projects get built. Using the Colorado Public Employees’ Retirement Association( PERA) as an example, he noted that most of its $ 6 billion real estate portfolio is invested outside Colorado. Global investors, he
warned, allocate funds where returns are predictable and risks are low.“ Capital is like an atmospheric river,” he said.“ If you don’ t give it a reason to flow into your community, it will go elsewhere.”
Policy uncertainty, he argued, creates risk and can choke off that flow of investment. Case studies from across the country show the consequences: in St. Paul, Minnesota, a strict rent control policy caused an 82 % drop in multifamily permits almost overnight, while nearby Minneapolis saw permitting increase as capital fled across city lines.“ Good intentions don’ t always translate into good outcomes,” Teo cautioned.“ When policies discourage investment, renters ultimately pay the price.”
2025 HOUSING SUMMIT
Michael Wilkerson, Director of Economic Research and Policy, added a broader economic perspective. His analysis showed that Colorado remains one of the most supply-constrained states in the nation, with vacancy rates in the Front Range among the lowest in the United States, but Mike cautioned that the state’ s future housing needs are shifting. Natural population growth is slowing, and Metro Denver is now losing residents to other parts of the country. International immigration is expected to drive most of the region’ s population growth in the near term.“ Colorado’ s demand picture is changing,” Wilkerson said.“ That has major implications for the type, scale, and timing of housing we need to build.”
REP. REBEKAH STEWART DANA LOWRY, Karen Gladney, LARA CARTAGENA
Dr. Michael Wilkerson Senator MARK SNYDER
REP. KYLE BROWN www. aamdhq. org TRENDS OCTOBER 2025 | 11