3 PATTERNING
3 PATTERNING
Phase 3 . Patterning - Including new perspectives and forecasting
This third phase is a very exciting one , where the perspective is shifted from understanding the now to what might happen in the future . Drawing further on the identified pivotal points and trends , patterns can be drawn and meaningfully projected in the future . Models that produce algorithmic forecasts can play a helpful role in this phase , but can at the same time never substitute for the need to perform foresighting activity through bringing together different actors ’ reasoning , discussion , and engage in a collaborative exercise of ‘ making sense ’. Often models lack precisely this information that has been identified in phase 2 , and therefore fail to recognize the trends in time for being able to react rapidly and avoid a delayed response . So this phase is also about using the knowledge gained in the first two phases in an open , collaborative and creative process , which maps what is happening and what might happen ‘ if ’. Here , a wide range of actors should be invited in order to step outside of what has been thought before .
Tasks to take in this phase could be :
Task 3-1 : Identify a rich set of different actors who can provide insight and perceptions on bigger patterns of change . This can be actors from companies , universities , the civil society , grassroot movements , NGOs , etc . To find the right actors it might be important to analyse carefully what initiatives in the fields of interest are already on-going and who is driving them ( that might be a crucial factor to connect to them afterwards ). Engage in dialogue with them , bringing up in the discussions :
Task 3-1-1 : Perspectives and trends and results of forecasting exercises , Task 3-1-2 : Where the biggest gaps in our knowledge and thinking are , Task 3-1-3 : What desired outcomes could be , Task 3-1-4 : Which experiments could live up to the trends and scenarios and or even have a strong enough leverage effect to alter them , Task 3-1-5 : Other important results from phases 1 and 2 . Process the results from these meetings into shared , common knowledge , that is fed back to the involved actors .
Task 3-2 : Engage in dialogue with citizens on the same issues ( including the processed knowledge from expert meetings ). Process the results from these meetings into publicly available documents , further building up shared , common knowledge .
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