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LEGISLATIVE REPORT: 2015 ELECTION ANALYSIS
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challengers were able to get a financial jump on the GOP early,
thereby allowing it TV ad time that forced the GOP incumbents to
play defense.
History shows that these Democratic incursions into the traditionally GOP Monmouth County happen once every decade or so, the
last time when Democrats swept the old 12th District, which is
mostly the current 11th District. The Democrats at that time lost their
seats after two terms. With a win of just less than 400 votes, the GOP
will be looking for history to repeat in 2017. However, the Democrats
aren’t likely to accept this as a fluke and will be reinforcing their new
incumbents and the County Dem organization well in advance of
2017. The GOP must retake 11 if it is be competitive into the end of
the decade.
16th District
In another nail-biter, Republican Incumbents Assemblyman Jack
Ciatterelli and Assemblywoman Donna Simon could be headed
toward a recount following a shocking surge from Democratic challengers Andrew Zwicker and Maureen Vella. Simon had been a late
Dem target in 2013 but survived an onslaught of independent PAC
spending at the time. Few statewide Democrats and analysts had the
16th on the target list for 2015. But in a district where the incumbent
Republicans were profoundly impacted by the redistricting of their
base in 2012, there appears to be little doubt the Democrats will focus
more attention on the 16th now that they appear to have solidified
themselves in other districts.
Simon and Zwicker were separated by only a few dozen votes
when the sun came up after Election Day and a recount will likely be
considered in either direction. The loss of Simon to the GOP would
be another stunning one on an already rough night.
38th District
District 38 was predicted to be the top priority for Republicans and
Democrats after Democrats Tim Eustace and Joe Lagana won in 2013
by a margin of approximately 25 votes. All eyes were fixed on the
Bergen County District as it not only would indicate a key GOP
pickup but it would have meant the county Republicans were likely
to mount a comeback on the Freeholder Board.
But when GOP candidate Anthony Coppola was discovered to
have written a book laced with racist and sexist commentary, he
dropped out of the race only to re-enter when it became cost prohibitive for the GOP to pay to reprint the ballots with a new name. His
running mate, Mark DiPisa, immediately distanced himself from
Cappola and the two essentially spent the last month of the
campaign explaining the impact of the controversy amongst themselves and not challenging the Dem incumbents.
The incumbents were also assisted by a focused “Get Out the Vote”
operation and a Democratic leadership that knew Lagana and
Eustace had targets on their backs. Onc