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How the Dems dominated…and what it means
LEGISLATIVE REPORT: 2015 ELECTION ANALYSIS
Looking at the 2015 General Election, most
pundits expected a dull race, ignored by voters with
just a few pockets of action in isolated spots across
the state. However, when the votes were counted, this
year proved that there is no such thing as dull elections in New Jersey.
With the Assembly at the top of the ticket for the
first
time since 1999 and turnout predicted to be low,
ROB NIXON
voters shocked the political establishment across
New Jersey by knocking off at least three incumbent
legislators and sending one district into a potential recount. This not
only increased the Democratic majority in the General Assembly to
51, but it appears to have weakened the Republican opposition
going into Gov. Christie’s final two years in office.
Early analysis will likely show a few factors led to Democrat wins.
First, as the majority party in the state, the Democrats had the
benefit of having more substantial resources than their opponents
both in fundraising and organization. Money is not the only
measure of success in campaigns, but it is a significant one and the
GOP was simply outgunned financially in several key areas.
Second, the map of the legislative districts designed in 2012 has
severely hampered competitiveness. The map essentially locks the
GOP into regions (Northwest NJ, the Shore and Central Jersey) and
leaves the remainder of the state in all but Democratic control. With
few real races at hand, Democrats had the freedom to play offense
in places the GOP needed to defend.
Finally, there will be much debate in the coming weeks about
whether the GOP losses were a result of “Christie fatigue.” The governor’s approval numbers, even amongst Republicans, have fallen
since his re-election and his Presidential aspirations have
potentially left New Jersey residents feeling underserved. In fact, the
governor was not an active participant in the GOP Assembly
strategy, and it is possible with statewide political attention focused
on his activity nationally, the State GOP could not build its own message focused on the Assembly.
Whatever the reasons, the results tell the story. The Democrats
will enter 2016 with their largest majority in the Assembly since
1979, the governor will enter his last two years in office with fewer
Republican legislators than when he came into office in 2010, and
the State Legislature that will be sworn into office in January 2016
will come loaded for bear with priorities to challenge the governor
head-to-head like never before.
Further analysis reveals:
PBA get out the vote success
The NJ State PBA was a major winner on Election Day 2015.
The PBA leadership made a commitment that 2015 would be a
first step in re-establishing itself as a political force, and the results
of the election demonstrated just that.
Every PBA-endorsed candidate won, including in tightly-contested Districts 1, 2 and 38. That success was built on a foundation of
grassroots activism that saw hundreds of PBA members volunteering in phone banks and in the streets from Cape May to Bergen
County.
The impact of those volunteers can’t be understated. Members
making calls and knocking on doors was witnessed first-hand by
legislative leaders, including Assembly Speaker Prieto, and candidates f