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many of their commercial properties ended up in foreclosure on a previously unseen scale.
Savings and loan institutions took on massive amounts of “real estate owned”—a term used to describe a class of property owned by a lender after an unsuccessful sale attempt at a foreclosure auction. Eventually,
the Federal government stepped in and created the Resolution Trust Corporation (RTC) to sell off the troubled real estate on the balance sheets of the savings and loan institutions at discounted prices. By the mid-1990s, now-legendary commercial real estate investors like Sam Zell had assembled portfolios of real estate acquired from the RTC at deep discounts to original construction costs. In the ensuing years, as these buildings recovered in value, the second generation of investors amassed great fortunes. Ultimately, this time period demonstrated what it takes to work through the excesses of too much real estate built for tax benefits as opposed to sound investment criteria.
A starkly different supply picture
As of the end of September 2014, new supply, shown in the chart below as new construction (starts) as a percentage of existing inventory, is just over 1.1%. This percentage is near the lows since 1970 (indicated by the blue line in the chart below). The green line is the aggregate amount of starts, in millions of square feet across property types. New building starts are running at roughly one-third of what they were when they peaked in the mid-1980s. These buildings comprise just over 850 million square feet, as compared to 1.8 billion square feet almost thirty years ago. Taken together, the supply and demand data suggest that so long as the economic recovery continues, commercial real estate may in fact be in the “early
innings” of a cyclical upturn. However, there are very real macroeconomic risks and challenges that could impede the recovery cycle. These risks include direct and indirect impacts of international conflicts on the U.S. business environment and unwinding never-before-seen levels of central bank intervention. But, if economic stability and modest growth domestic product (GDP) growth can persist, we believe there is real potential for an extended growth phase that may reward long-term commercial real estate investors with growing asset values and competitive rates of return.
Risk
Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. The value of any financial instruments or markets mentioned herein can fall as well as rise. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This material is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice, a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product, or as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any investment. Statistics, prices, estimates,
forward-looking statements, and other information contained herein have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no guarantee is given as to their accuracy or completeness. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice.
Investing in the real estate industry or in real estate-related securities involves the risks associated with direct ownership of real estate which include, among other things, changes in economic conditions (e.g., interest rates), the macro real estate development market, government intervention (e.g., property taxes) or environmental disasters. These risks may also affect the value of equities that service the real estate sector.
December 18, 2014
by Ian Goltra
of Forward
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For more information contact
Darren Haiman
office(850) 785-2233 / mobile(850) 814-3662
[email protected] / nationsre.com
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