Military Review English Edition September-October 2014 | Page 57

AFGHANISTAN ENDGAME

advisory and support efforts based
out of Thailand.22

The history of Cambodia provides a case study in the adverse
effect a similar zero option might
have in Afghanistan. Comparative
analysis lends credence to the argument for a vigorous post-2014 train,
advise, and assist mission, with
continued funding for the ANSF
through a bilateral security agreement with the United States, and
the sustained financial support of
the U.S. Congress for several years.23
Cassidy reports that as of Spring
Soldiers from Headquarters and Headquarters Company, 173rd Special Troops Battalion,
2014, qualitatively and quantitagive a block of instruction on rocket-propelled grenade launchers during range training
tively, the Afghan security forces
in Beshud, Nangarhar Province, Afghanistan, 13 February 2008. The training is for the U.S.
have improved; they have taken
forces to evaluate the Afghanistan national policeman on their marksmanship skills.
a genuine lead for combat operations.24 However, the work remains
Dunford warned of inevitable deterioration in
unfinished, and it is unlikely that Afghanistan can
Afghanistan without continued support, saying that
complete its development without help. According to
ANSF units would run out of fuel, base systems would
International Security Assistance Force commander
become less operable, spare parts for vehicles would beGen. Joseph Dunford Jr., “they still need assistance in
come unavailable, and readiness and operational reach
maturing the systems, the processes and the institutions
would decrease.27 Moreover, the International Security
necessary to support a modern national army and police Assistance Force would not be able to complete its
force.”25 The U.S. commitment to funding and advisors
work with the land or air forces; work with the air force
should aim at strengthening the Afghan ministries and
needs two years or more.
corps that can sustain the military and police in the long
When asked by the Senate Armed Services
term.
Committee on 6 March 2014 about the likely effects
As did the FANK in the 1970s, the ANSF still
of a zero option in Afghanistan, head of U.S. Central
needs support for developing officer leadership, opCommand Gen. Lloyd Austin said,
erational-strategic logistics, and aviation capabili“I think it [a zero option] would be problematic.
ties. Developing the logistics capability of the ANSF
It would be bad for the country of Afghanistan, as a
remains of critical importance. Lt. Gen. Joseph
whole. I think that, without our fiscal support, and
Anderson, commander of the International Security
certainly without our mentorship, we would see, immeAssistance Force Joint Command, stated in a 20 March diately, a much less effective Afghan National Security
2014 phone interview with the Army Times, “The real
Force. Over the long term, we could possibly see a
issue [in Afghanistan] is getting a supply system in
fracturing of that force.”28
place where they generate requirements based on what
happens to their vehicles, their weapons, their radios.
Conclusion
That system doesn’t exist. Right now things are bought
To say the failure in Cambodia was due only to a
on a bulk predictive model.”26
withdrawal of financial support would be an oversimSimilarly, during a 12 March 2014 hearing beplification. Success in Cambodia would have required
fore the U.S. Senate Committee on Armed Services,
much more than just money—for much longer than
MILITARY REVIEW  September-October 2014

55

Spc. Justin French , U.S. Department of Defense

Afghanistan After 2014