Military Review English Edition May-June 2016 | Page 30

T

he subject I have been asked to talk about is
the principal reason why no European leader since
how to create a new security architecture in
the end of the Cold War has asked the Americans to
Europe that brings the Russians out of the cold leave. And, it’s the principal reason the Russians were
and promotes peace in the region.
perfectly happy to allow the United States to remain
I think that the best we can hope for at this point
in Western Europe after they retreated when the
in time is to return to the status quo ante, and by that
Cold War ended.
I mean the situation that existed here in Europe before
So, the American pacifier was an important part of
2008. I think there’s no hope of creating a radically
the story. The second part of the story is that the West—
new security architecture. And, I even
think it’s going to be
extremely difficult
to go back to the
pre-2008 situation in
Europe. I think the
best way to understand the options that
we face is to start with
a discussion of the history of the past twenty-five years, which
can be divided roughly
into two periods. The
first period is from
1990 to 2008, and the
second period is from
2008 up to the present. I think the period
from 1990 to 2008
(Photo by Maxim Shemetov, Reuters)
was really the golden
Russian
servicemen
march
during
celebrations
to
mark
Victory
Day
in
the
Crimean
port
of Sevastopol 9 May
period. Europe was
2014. Russian troops invaded Crimea in February 2014, and the territory of Crimea was officially annexed by
remarkably peaceRussia 18 March 2014.
ful—save for what
happened in the Balkans, of course. But there was
and here we are talking mainly about NATO—did not
virtually no serious possibility of a conflict between
threaten the Russians in any meaningful way. There is
Russia and the West during those years. All seemed to
no question that the Russians were opposed to NATO
be going very well here in Europe on the security front, expansion. The Russians opposed both the first tranche
which raises the obvious question: Why was that the
of expansion in 1999, as well as the second tranche in
case? There are two reasons.
2004, but the Russians did not view those initial moves
One, NATO remained intact, which meant
eastward as a mortal threat. So, between 1990 and 2008,
the Americans remained militarily committed to
all was well in Europe. Again, that was because of the
Europe, allowing them to serve as the pacifier in the
American pacifier and because the West was not a seriregion. The United States was, in effect, the ultious threat to Russia.
mate arbiter and a higher authority that maintained
But, that situation began to change in 2008, which
order. Its military presence in Europe made it almost
was a fateful year. First of all, there was the NATO
impossible for any of the states that fell underneath
summit in Bucharest in April 2008. At the end of that
its security umbrella to fight with each other. This is
summit, NATO said in no uncertain terms that both
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May-June 2016  MILITARY REVIEW