Medidas de Gestao das Pescarias Marinhas e Aquicultura 2019 The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture 2018 | Page 149

THE STATE OF WORLD FISHERIES AND AQUACULTURE 2018
FIGURE 39
EXAMPLES OF PROJECTED IMPACTS AND VULNERABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH CLIMATE
CHANGE IN OCEAN SUBREGIONS (TOP), WITH EXAMPLES OF RISKS TO FISHERIES FROM
OBSERVED AND PROJECTED IMPACTS (BOTTOM)
PROJECTED IMPACTS AND VULNERABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH CLIMATE CHANGE
1) Expansion of low productivity
areas as a consequence of
thermal stratification (Low)
6) Decline in dissolved oxygen
through changes in solubility and
ocean circulation (Medium)
3) Upwelling, hence productivity, changes as a
result of climate variability (Low)
4) Spread of tropical species originating
from Indian and Atlantic Oceans (High)
7) Expansion of seasonally
hypoxic waters due to thermal
stratification and eutrophication;
mass coral bleaching events
(High)
2) Northward expansion of fish
communities; increase in fish
biomass at high latitude fringes
(High)
9) Mass coral bleaching and mortality
in response to warming (Very high)
8) Shoaling of aragonite
saturation horizon reduces
biological calcification (High)
5) Expansion of Oxygen
Minimum Zones (High)
B
2
2
C
B
C
A
4
1
7
E
3
7
5
D
9
6
G
F
H
H
8
E) Decline in primary
production and
reductions in fish catch
(Low)
B) Increased fish catches at
high-latitude fringes with
economic disruptions and
jurisdictional tensions as
some fish stocks shift
distributions (Medium)
A) Acidification affects
shellfish aquaculture
(Medium)
C) Thermal stratification
and eutrophication reduces
dissolved oxygen (Medium)
D) Sea level rise modifies
coastlines and increases
flooding (Medium)
F) Increase in variability of upwelling
in some Eastern Boundary Upwelling
Systems (Medium)
RISKS TO FISHERIES FROM OBSERVED AND PROJECTED IMPACTS
IPCC OCEAN SUBREGIONS
High-Latitude Spring Bloom Systems Coastal Boundary Systems Equatorial Upwelling Systems
Semi-Enclosed Seas Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems Subtropical Gyres
NOTE: Level of confidence is indicated in brackets
SOURCE: Modified from Figure 30-12 in Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2014
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H) Temperature-driven
shifts in stocks of large
pelagic fish create winners
and losers (High)
G) Degradation of coral reefs and
associated fish stocks as the extent
and intensity of mass coral bleaching
and mortality increases (High)