PART 1 • Opening choices at a glance
Let's step through the tree, following those moves,
and see what we get when we reach that position:
• You'll recall that after 11.Bd2, Houdini 2 recommended the move 11...
Ngf6. But that's the second-favorite move on the list right?
• Look closer. While it's played less often than 11...e6, it's performed a
bit better statistically than the Knight move. Meanwhile, a chess engine
evaluates the two moves as being equal – a bit better than a tenth of a
pawn in White's favor, close enough to zero to call the position an even
game.
• The tree also shows three other moves, and while 11...Ndf6 scored a
50% success percentage, we need to note that it was played just once,
meaning the game was a draw, and that a chess engine evaluated the
position as being nearly a half-pawn in White's favor (a nice edge for
White). So I think we can safely reject that idea.
That brings us to another important point: when looking at a move's
statistics in a chess tree, take any “success” numbers with a big dose
of salt if that move has been played very few times. In the case of the
aforementioned 11...Ndf6, it scores well for White according to a chess
engine, but the game was still a draw – it's entirely possible that Black
squeaked by with a draw because of a White mistake later in the game.
It's just another example of why statistical data should be used as a
guide, a signpost, but it's never the last word – you should always think
for yourself!
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