LUSD Facilities Master Plan | Page 75

Section Five D e m o g r a p h i c s Livingston Union School District | Facilities Master Plan & C a p a c i t y Step Three: Housing Development Housing In recent history the District has experienced residential growth equating to approximately 20 new housing units per year. Students being generated from this rate of housing development are captured in the analysis as a factor of the cohort migration rate outlined in the previous section. Over the next ten years, however, the District may expect the rate of housing development to grow and exceed these figures by up to double the amount of new units per year. Throughout the development of this Study, we have worked with the City of Livingston and County of Merced planning departments to estimate residential development anticipated over the next ten years. FIGURE 11: MAP OF PL ANNED AND APPROVED HOUSING DEVELOPMENT WITHIN DISTRIC T Students generated from housing developments are a factor in calculating enrollment growth within the District with many different issues impacting the rate and level of future development. The Study projects housing units by including all City approved units in housing development projects that are moving along in the planning and development process. The following housing scenario includes all active development projects and subdivided housing lots to form the basis for the enrollment projections. Distribution of the projected housing units is estimated for each year across the ten year period. The distribution is based on conversations with the City of Livingston and County of Merced planning departments and historical development rates of subdivisions for the potential timing of completion of those units. It is important to note that if the housing units are constructed at a faster rate the resulting enrollment increase will be realized by the District at a faster rate as well. Table 8 identifies the annual housing development contemplated for the housing scenario. TABLE 8: ESC AL ATION IN HOUSING DEVELOPMENT Year Projected Development 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 New Units 20 22 22 48 50 50 50 50 50 56 Total 418 In addition to the units identified in Table 8 and Figure 11, there is potential for development of approximately 932 units on exiting vacant residential zoned land within the City and approximately 1,139 units on existing vacant residential zoned land in the County. There are currently no approved plans for development of this vacant land, therefore, these units are not included in the housing augmentation of the enrollment projection. Based on the current student generation rate, it is estimated that the development of the vacant residential land could add approximately 1,187 students to the District. 73