Section Five
D e m o g r a p h i c s
Livingston Union School District | Facilities Master Plan
&
C a p a c i t y
Step Two: Birth Rates and Migration Factors
Birth Capture Rate
In the most basic SP scenario shown earlier in the report, Kindergarten
enrollment is repeated from the previous year. However, in all future scenarios
evaluated in the Study, Kindergarten enrollment is derived by (1) calculating the
historic birth-attendance rate (Kindergarten enrollment divided by the number
of births five years earlier) and (2) applying that birth-attendance rate to the
number of births five years prior to the applicable projected enrollment year.
This is known as a Birth Capture Rate.
FIGURE 7: BIRTHS COMPARED TO KINDERGARTEN ENROLLMENT 5 YEARS L ATER
*
The District recently began serving Transitional Kindergarten (TK) students
which, has increased the size of the Kindergarten classes the District serves. TK
students are eligible for early entry into a Kindergarten program, but are not
eligible to move on to first grade until after their second year of instruction.
Since the program was fully implemented, the number of students eligible
to attend TK and Kindergarten combined has increased by about 25% from
previous Kindergarten enrollment trends.
* *
The relationship between births and Kindergarten (exclusive of TK) enrollment
five years later is shown in Figure 7. Note that the Kindergarten enrollment
from 2012-13 through 2014-15 has been manually adjusted to reflect estimated
enrollment for a 12-month birth capture. This accounts for the transitional
implementation of TK, and its impacts to the Kindergarten enrollment.
Birth Capture Rates have remained fairly consistent over the past three years.
Therefore, for planning purposes, an average Capture Rate utilizing the past
three years of historical data was utilized in the Study for each of the enrollment
projection models.
*Note: Adjusted to account for TK transition
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