This is precisely the sort of social engineering the party has failed to emulate in any other contiguous province down south .
Karnataka that way was an exception . The upper caste-Lingayat binary between Ananth Kumar and Yediyurappa worked well for over two decades . Ananth Kumar at the center , Yediyurappa in the state . After Kumar ' s untimely death , the BJP has tried to fill that void by promoting Prahlad Joshi to the union council and appointing BL Santosh as National Secretary incharge of organization .
Karnataka has had only 2 Brahmin Chief Ministers- Gundu Rao and Ramkrishna Hegde . The latter ' s leadership was pegged on anti-Congresses and Lingayat support base . Just ahead of the assembly polls in 2023 , would the BJP want to experiment with an upper caste face ?
If the alternative is to be chosen from the existing sitting MLAs , the first amongst equals must carry the right credentials to keep the social coalition of the party ' s support base intact .
Sensing an opening as matter drag on , BSY supporters have this week launched their counter offensive seeking removal of Tourism Minister CP Yogeshwar who been leading the charge against the chief minister .
For a very long period after the replacement of Anandiben Patel in Gujarat , BJP under Modi-Shah never did disturb any of its chief ministers . Not when Manohar Lal Khattar faced a tough time in
Haryana . Not even when Raghubar Das was openly challenged by his ministerial colleague Saryu Rai .
BJP operated on the assumption or pretext that perhaps the high popularity rating of Modi was sufficient to tide over any local antiincumbency in the provinces .
Entering the seventh year in office , the rule book has been tweaked a bit . Trivendra Singh
Two years in politics is a long time and a lot of water will flow down the Sharavati in the next two years . As speculations continue , BSY ' s chances of continuing at the helm , it seems , would depend on BJP ' s political assessment on two counts .
Rawat has been asked to go just 12 months before Uttarakhand assembly polls . In Assam , altered political dynamics in the east has catapulted HB Sharma as Assam chief minister .
BJP is clearly looking to consolidate its states before the 2024 Lok Sabha polls . A win in provincial elections tends to provide electoral relief to national parties . And Karnataka elections can ' t be taken for granted . They will be fought much too close to the next Lok Sabha polls
If the BJP indeed decides to bite the bullet now in Karnataka , the party will also have to weigh in the risk factor before triggering a disruption . Will BSY trade punches as he did ten years back to launch his own outfit ? Or will he hang up his gloves as and when he is asked to ?
At loggerheads with LK Advani , Yediyurappa did not even wince once before parting ways . With age on his side , his aim then was to demonstrate his ability to inflict political damage on the party and to underscore his credentials as the un-dispute caste leader .
Quite unlike Uma Bharti in Madhya Pradesh and Babulal Marandi in Jharkhand , Yediyurappa succeeded on both counts . He did a Kalyan Singh to the BJP in Karnataka .
The party took Yediyurappa back before the next assembly pollsfalling short of the half-way mark by a whisker . In 2019 , the BJP even relaxed the 75-year-age bar for its first CM in any southern state . As speculation over his continuation in office re-surface , BS Yediyurappa has maintained a studied calm . He has the ability to see the ball early . His political strokes are timed to perfection . He is tenacious and has an immense ability to fight back .
But like all good politicians he is also a very practical man .
The author is a senior journalist . The views expressed are personal . �
www . legacyindia . in June 2021 | Legacy India 25