Confronting Model Uncertainty in Policy Analysis for Complex Systems : What Policymakers Should Demand
& Pavitt , K . L . R . ( Eds .). ( 1973 ). Models of doom : A critique of ‘ limits to growth ’. New York , NY : Universe Books .
Davis , P . K . ( Ed .). ( 1994 ). New challenges in defense planning : Rethinking how much is enough . Santa Monica , CA : RAND . Retrieved from http :// www . rand . org / pubs / monograph _ reports / MR400 . html
Davis , P . K . ( 2002 ). Analytic architecture for capabilities-based planning , mission-system analysis , and transformation ( MR1513 ). Santa Monica , CA : RAND . Retrieved from http :// www . rand . org / pubs / monograph _ reports / MR1513 . html
Davis , P . K . ( 2014 ). Analysis to inform defense planning despite austerity . Santa Monica , CA : RAND . Retrieved from http :// www . rand . org / pubs / research _ reports / RR842 . htm
Davis , P . K ., & Arquilla , J . ( 1991 ). Deterring or coercing opponents in crisis : Lessons from the war with Saddam Hussein ( R-4111-JS ). Santa Monica , CA : RAND . Retrieved from https :// www . rand . org / content / dam / rand / pubs / reports / 2007 / R4111 . pdf
Davis , P . K ., Bankes , S . C ., & Egner , M . ( 2007 ). Enhancing strategic planning with massive scenario generation : Theory and experiments ( TR-392-OSD ). Santa Monica , CA : RAND .
Davis , P . K ., & Cragin , K . ( Eds .). ( 2009 ). Social science for counterterrorism : Putting the pieces together . Santa Monica , CA : RAND . Retrieved from http :// www . rand . org / pubs / monographs / MG849 . html
Davis , P . K ., Gompert , D . C ., Johnson , S ., & Long , D . ( 2008 ). Developing resource-informed strategic assessments and recommendations ( April 8 , Trans . MG-662 ). Santa Monica , CA : RAND . Retrieved from http :// www . rand . org / pubs / monographs / MG703 . html
Davis , P . K ., & O ’ Mahony , A . ( 2017 ). Representing qualitative social science in computational models to aid reasoning under uncertainty : National security examples . Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation , 14 ( 1 ), 1-22 . doi : 10.1177 / 1548512916681085
Davis , P . K ., O ’ Mahony , A ., & Pfautz , J . ( Eds .). ( 2019 ). Social-behavioral modeling for complex systems . Hoboken , NJ : John Wiley & Sons . doi : 10.1002 / 9781119485001
Davis , P . K ., Perry , W . L ., Hollywood , J . S ., & Manheim , D . ( 2016 ). Uncertainty-sensitive heterogeneous information fusion : Assessing threat with soft , uncertain , and conflicting evidence . Santa Monica , CA : RAND .
Davis , P . K ., Shaver , R . D ., & Beck , J . ( 2008 ). Portfolio-analysis methods for assessing capability options ( August 11 , Trans . MG-662-OSD ). Santa Monica , CA : RAND . Retrieved from http :// www . rand . org / pubs / monographs / MG662 . html
Eastin , J ., Grundman , J ., & Prakash , A . 197